FXUS65 KBOI 032043 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 243 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night... As of writing this (2pm MDT), thunderstorms have begun developing along the Nevada boarder and over the Idaho central mountains with a cumulus field developing over eastern Oregon. The expectation is for more storms to develop, mostly in eastern Oregon, within the next few hours before moving northeast through the evening. Hazards associated with these storms include small hail, wind gusts up to 55mph, and localized areas of blowing dust. Widespread rain showers with embedded thunderstorms will develop overnight tonight. This is thanks to the first shortwave out of a one two punch embedded within a negatively tilted trough. With the shortwave lowering heights and bringing cooler air in aloft, model soundings show weak elevated instability holding on overnight. While these nocturnal storms will be slightly weaker, they are still capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, small hail, and wind gusts up 50mph. In regard to sloped terrain and burn scars, rainfall rates with this round will generally be under 0.25 inches/hour, so have opted to not issue any hydro products. As the first shortwave and associated precipitation exits our area, slight ridging builds in ahead of the next shortwave. This will allow for a break in precipitation across most of our area around midday. Models are showing good airmass recovery after the morning shower/thunderstorms, and the cap associated with the low-amplitude ridge will allow for more instability to build with the HREF mean showing 500-1000j/kg. As the next shortwave moves across the area Friday afternoon, this instability, paired with shear values of 40-60 kt, mean that storms that develop could become severe. With hazards include wind gusts up to 60mph, hail, and localized heavy rain/blowing dust Temperatures drop to a few degrees below normal on Friday, staying in the 80s throughout the Snake Plain Friday/Saturday. .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Ridging is the name of the game through next week. Models are in good agreement of an upper-level ridge setting up over the Four Corners region, with a trough off the coast of California keeping our area in Southerly flow aloft. As this ridge builds, temperatures take on warming trend reaching roughly 10 degrees above normal by Monday. Heat headlines may be needed in the week to come as a result of the prolonged hot temperatures. && .AVIATION...Showers/thunderstorms will develop this afternoon near the NV border and progress northeastward. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible through Friday afternoon, with gusts to 45 kt, small hail, and heavy rain. Blowing dust and precipitation could cause local MVFR/IFR conditions. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt, some variability due to lingering weak storm outflows. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: WSW 5-15 kt. KBOI...Mostly VFR. Showers/thunderstorm chances increase after Fri/09Z, with erratic outflow winds 30-45 kt, lightning, reduced visibility in rain and blowing dust. Most likely time period for rain and thunderstorms affecting the terminal is between 04/12Z and 04/14Z. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible Friday afternoon. Surface winds outside of storms: NW-W 5-15 kt. Weekend Outlook...Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms across the area Friday morning become focused over high terrain in SW and central Idaho Friday afternoon. Gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rain are possible in storms. VFR Saturday and Sunday with clearing skies. Surface winds NW 5-15 kt each morning and afternoon. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Red Flag Warning until 1 AM MDT Friday IDZ426. OR...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT thisevening ORZ670-672. Red Flag Warning from 3 AM MDT /2 AM PDT/ to 11 PM MDT /10 PM PDT/ Friday ORZ670-672>674. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM....NF AVIATION.....JR