FXUS65 KBOI 030914

AFDBOI



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Boise ID

314 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025



.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night...The short range

period will be active, with periods of showers and thunderstorms

today and Friday, and the chance for heavy rain late Thu night 

into Friday. Early this morning, a few showers were moving 

northeast across the area, but all thunderstorm activity had 

ended as of 3:00 AM MDT. The remainder of the morning is 

expected to be fairly quite, but thunderstorms will increase 

near the NV this afternoon. Storms will move NE into the 

evening, especially over eastern Oregon. This lines up well with

the Red Flag Warning in effect this afternoon and evening, and 

no change has been made to that this morning. A significant 

shortwave trough will move toward the area tonight, and pass 

over in two parts. The first will move over the area early 

Friday, while the second passes over Friday night. The first 

wave has the potential to keep thunderstorms going all Thursday 

night and into Friday morning. Moisture will increase ahead of 

the wave, and there is good model agreement that storm coverage

will increase, and that some may contain heavy rain. Debris 

flows, especially on/near burn scars, are possible in sloped 

terrain, and a flood watch may be necessary if later guidance 

continues to show this potential. For today's storms, wind gusts

45 to 55 mph are possible. Tonight, wind gust potential will 

fall slightly to 40-50 mph, still unusually high for nocturnal 

convection. By Friday afternoon, peak gust potential rises back 

up to 45-55 mph. By Saturday, with the final shortwave trough 

moving off to the east, the remaining slight chance for showers 

and thunderstorms will be over the West Central Mountain zone. 

Saturday night should be dry.



Temperatures will drop to around 5 degrees above normal today, 

then fall to a few degrees below normal Friday and Saturday. 

Highs in lower elevations in the 80s will feel refreshing after 

the heat we have experienced recently. Winds, apart from those 

produced by showers and thunderstorms, should be generally out 

of the NW during the afternoons averaging 5-15 mph.



.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...An upper-level trough 

will stall out over the coast of California as a strong upper- 

level ridge will build in over the Desert Southwest and Great 

Basin. This will put SE Oregon and SW Idaho in a drying and 

warming trend under southwesterly flow aloft. Models remain in 

good agreement in the development of the ridge, thus forecast 

confidence is high in a heat wave beginning Monday through 

Thursday. Temperatures are still expected to be about 10 degrees

above normal, with lower elevations hovering just above 100 

degrees for their afternoon highs. Exact high temperature values

may shift by a few degrees leading up to the event. However, 

there is enough agreement in high temps that due to the multi- 

day nature of the event, some sort of heat product will likely 

be issued.



&&



.AVIATION...Mostly VFR. Isolated showers persist this morning. 

But numerous showers/thunderstorms are expected beginning this 

afternoon. Storms could produce 45 kt gusts, small hail, and 

heavy rain. Storms will develop along the ID/NV and OR/NV 

borders and progress northeastward through the area in the 

evening, lasting even until Friday morning. Blowing dust and 

precipitation could cause local MVFR/IFR conditions. Surface 

winds: W-NW 5-15 kt, some variability due to lingering weak 

storm outflows. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: WSW 5-15 kt.



KBOI...VFR. Showers/thunderstorms returning this evening into 

Fri, with erratic outflow winds 30-45 kt, lightning, reduced 

visibility in rain and blowing dust. Surface winds outside of 

storms: NW-W 5-15 kt.



Weekend Outlook...Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms

across the area Friday morning become focused over high terrain

in SW and central Idaho Friday afternoon. Gusty winds, small 

hail, and heavy rain are possible in storms. VFR Saturday and 

Sunday with clearing skies. Surface winds NW 5-15 kt each 

morning and afternoon.



&&



.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ID...None.

OR...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this 

     evening ORZ670-672.



&&



$$



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SHORT TERM...SP

LONG TERM....JM

AVIATION.....JM