FXUS65 KBOI 021617

AFDBOI



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Boise ID

1017 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025



.DISCUSSION...Elevated fire weather concerns for today.  

Satellite and radar showing isolated virga showers ongoing over 

the Western Magic Valley, expected to continue today. Strong to 

severe thunderstorms possible over much of SE OR, with 

potential for these storms to produce outflows up to 50 kts. 

DCAPE values still forecast to be near 1500 J/kg with PWATs near

0.8". Confidence remains high for coverage of these 

thunderstorms, although model variability remains from the CAMs 

run-to-run. Thunderstorms are most likely to impact SE OR and 

W-central ID, but weak thunderstorms or showers are possible in 

the rest of SW ID.





&&



.AVIATION...VFR. Local IFR conditions possible with isolated to

scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily in SE OR and near

KMYL, from 20Z-Thu/06Z. Impacts with this precipitation include

gusts to 50 kts and small hail. High density altitudes with very

high temperatures expected in the afternoon. Surface winds: 

variable 5-15 kt, becoming WNW 10-20 kt area- wide this

afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 10-20 kt.



KBOI...VFR. High density altitude due to heat. Isolated thunderstorms

possible (10-15% chance) this evening. Outflows up to 40 kt and

small hail possible. Surface winds: variable 5-10 kt becoming 

NW 5-15 kt this afternoon. 25 kt frontal gusts possible around 

Thu/06Z.





&&



.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...Today is shaping up

to be an active weather day with a variety of threats. A Red

Flag Warning remains in effect today for the likelihood of

scattered lightning over much of eastern Oregon. In addition,

and new Heat Advisory has been issued for the Lower Treasure

Valley of Oregon. Although temperatures will be a few degrees

less hot compared to yesterday, the relative humidity will be

higher, resulting in similar heat risk. The latest mesoscale

models indicate a good chance for thunderstorms with the

potential to produce damaging wind gusts across eastern Oregon

this afternoon and evening. The latest NAMNest has joined other

models in showing a significant thunderstorm cluster moving

northeast from south of Burns to Baker County and east into

Adams County, with wind gust potential to or perhaps even above

60 mph. DCAPE is forecast to be above 1300 J/kg across a large

area, which will provide plenty of available energy for strong

downdrafts. The SPC has kept much of the area in a "marginal"

outlook for severe storms today. As you may have already

guessed, there is a weak shortwave trough set to move across the

area late this afternoon into tonight.



The situation won't be too different Thursday, with only

slightly lower DCAPE and cooler temperatures likely resulting in

storms below severe limits. The threat extends east into our

Idaho zones Thursday and again Friday, when a significant

shortwave trough is forecast to approach the area. Our current

thinking is that we may see significant storms late Thursday

night extending right on into Friday morning and through the day

Friday. The trough is notably stronger than the one we will see

today, but thermodynamic parameters will be weaker.



LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...As a trough exits 

eastward, just enough moisture will remain Saturday afternoon for a 

10% chance of storms in the West Central mtns. Then, as an upper low 

develops off the Californian coast, a ridge develops directly over 

the area, raising heights and putting us under warm and dry 

southwest flow. Models have fallen into disagreement on the details 

of the CA low development, but all agree on the development of the 

ridge into a closed high over the desert SW. Thus a warming trend 

through the long term is likely. We are set to warm from near normal 

on Saturday to about 10 degrees above normal by Tuesday/Wednesday. 

This will mean a return to near 100 degrees for many lower elevation 

locations. With the ridge firmly in place, expect multiple days of 

heat next week.



&&



.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ID...None.

OR...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT /11 PM PDT/ tonight 

     ORZ670-672>675.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ this evening ORZ064.



&&



$$



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DISCUSSION...CH

AVIATION.....CH

SHORT TERM...SP

LONG TERM....JM