FXUS65 KBOI 020257

AFDBOI



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Boise ID

857 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025



.DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms remain this evening across 

northern Harney and Baker Counties. While overall convective 

activity has diminished early this evening, high-resolution 

guidance continues to indicate the potential for another round 

of thunderstorms later tonight. Increasing mid-level moisture, 

combined with the approach of a weak shortwave, may be enough to

initiate additional storms overnight. Earlier this evening, a 

few storms produced wind gusts up to 55 MPH, mainly across 

south-central Idaho and Harney County, Oregon, though most 

storms generated gusts in the 30-40 MPH range with little to no 

rainfall.



Boise reached 102°F, marking the hottest day of the year so far

and the warmest temperature recorded since August 17, 2024. 

Ontario hit 104°F, and Mountain Home topped out at 105°F.



Looking ahead to Wednesday, conditions appear more favorable for

strong to potentially severe thunderstorms as a weak upper-level

low tracks into the region. The most favorable environment for

stronger storms is expected across southeast Oregon Wednesday

afternoon, where forecast DCAPE values range between 1000–1500

J/kg and 0–6 km shear approaches 30 knots. This setup supports a

20% chance for strong storms capable of producing severe wind

gusts up to 60 MPH.



&&



.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms to 

continue through 04Z this evening across SE Oregon and the higher 

terrain of SW Idaho with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered showers and 

thunderstorms across SE Oregon and the central ID mountains on 

Wednesday, and isolated elsewhere across southern ID. High density 

altitude due to heat. Surface winds: NW-SE 5-15 kt, except SW 10-20 

kt along the NV border and in the central ID mountains...becoming 

WNW 10-20 kt area-wide after 18Z Wednesday. Winds aloft at 10kft 

MSL: variable 5-15 kt.



KBOI...VFR. High density altitude due to heat. Isolated showers and 

thunderstorms possible after 20Z Wednesday. Surface winds: NW 5-10 

kt, becoming SE overnight, then turning to the west and increasing 

to 8-12 kt with higher gusts after 18Z Wednesday.



&&



.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...A few

isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of Harney

County on the far western side of our forecast area early this

evening. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible in south 

central Idaho, mainly south of the Twin Falls area through early

evening as well, but will dissipate after sunset. Tomorrow will

be another hot day, though not quit as hot as it is today. The 

atmosphere will become quite unstable tomorrow afternoon and 

there will be increasing mid-level moisture which will cause 

a 20 to 30 percent chance of thunderstorms across southwestern 

Idaho and southeastern Oregon. However, the lower portion of the

atmosphere will remain rather dry which will cause much of the 

rain associated with these thunderstorms to evaporate before 

reaching the ground. Still...up to a tenth of an inch or rain 

is possible in the core of the strongest storms. Expect gusty 

winds in the vicinity of showers, thunderstorms and 

virga...diminishing after sunset. Another round of scattered 

showers and thunderstorms is expected on Thursday afternoon with

the passage of weak cold front.



LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Expect mostly clear skies, dry

weather with temperatures near normal through the 4th of July 

holiday and on Saturday. A significant warming trend will begin

on Sunday with hot and dry weather returning early next week.



&&



.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ID...None.

OR...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /11 AM PDT/ Wednesday to 

     midnight MDT /11 PM PDT/ Wednesday night ORZ670-672>675.



&&$$



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DISCUSSION...JDS

AVIATION.....MC

SHORT TERM...JB

LONG TERM....JB