FXUS64 KTSA 221728

AFDTSA



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tulsa OK

1228 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES... 

Updated at 1221 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



 - Record-breaking heat continues today.



 - Fire weather conditions today will be the biggest concern, as 

   winds strengthen ahead of and behind a cold front where 

   humidities will be low and fuels abundant.

 

 - More near record heat mid to late this week, along with 

   increased fire weather concerns.



 - Low rain chances late next week with another front.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Through tonight )

Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



We adjusted temperatures up a couple of degrees in

far northwest Arkansas and adjacent portions of far

northeast Oklahoma for this afternoon as temperatures

have been as much as 4 degrees above above NBM data

and data from 24 hours ago.  



Chaotic fire weather conditions will occur in much of 

eastern Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas as a cold

front moves through the region this afternoon and evening.

Winds will be gusty from the southwest west ahead of the 

front, but become lighter as the front approaches. Humidity

values will fall ahead of the front. After the front passes,

winds will shift into a northerly direction and gust higher

than ahead of the front. This will result in a dangerous

environment for firefighters. The humidity rise behind

the front. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Tomorrow through Sunday)

Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Cooler conditions will settle in tomorrow behind the 

front. Then a warming trend will kick back in starting

on Tuesday and continuing through Thursday. Record 

heat is possible ahead of another cold front that arrives

by the end of the week. This as the large upper-level 

ridge in the west flattens some and shifts toward the

Plains. The ridge will rebuild some later in the 

week and support another cold front to pass through.

Some patchy light precipitation appears possible

with the front, but the odds of a more general wetting

precipitation event appear low at the moment.      



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the forecast period

for all sites. Winds will continue to be strong out of the

southwest this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. The

front moves through eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this

afternoon and evening, with strong northerly winds behind it.

North winds gradually decrease through the overnight period, but

remain breezy into Monday morning as winds become more easterly.

Mid and high clouds are likely through the forecast period, with a

period of mostly clear skies possible Monday morning.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TUL   92  46  68  48 /   0   0   0   0 

FSM   93  52  72  50 /   0   0   0   0 

MLC   93  52  73  51 /   0   0   0   0 

BVO   88  39  65  43 /   0   0   0   0 

FYV   92  44  68  45 /   0   0   0   0 

BYV   91  44  63  45 /   0   0   0   0 

MKO   92  47  70  50 /   0   0   0   0 

MIO   89  42  63  46 /   0   0   0   0 

F10   94  47  70  51 /   0   0   0   0 

HHW   90  55  71  53 /   0   0   0   0 



&&



.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>075.



     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>061.



AR...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-010.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...30

LONG TERM....08

AVIATION...43