FXUS64 KTSA 221709 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1209 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1150 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 - Record-breaking heat continues into Sunday. - Fire weather conditions on Sunday will be the biggest concern, as winds strengthen ahead of and behind a cold front where humidities will be low and fuels abundant. - More near record heat mid to late next week, along with increased fire weather concerns. - Low rain chances late next week with another front. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 We adjusted temperatures up a couple of degrees in far northwest Arkansas and adjacent portions of far northeast Oklahoma for this afternoon as temperatures have been as much as 4 degrees above above NBM data and data from 24 hours ago. Chaotic fire weather conditions will occur in much of eastern Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas as a cold front moves through the region this afternoon and evening. Winds will be gusty from the southwest west ahead of the front, but become lighter as the front approaches. Humidity values will fall ahead of the front. After the front passes, winds will shift into a northerly direction and gust higher than ahead of the front. This will result in a dangerous environment for firefighters. The humidity rise behind the front. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Cooler conditons will settle in tomorrow behind the front. Then a warming trend will kick back in starting on Tuesday and continuing through Thursday. Record heat is possible ahead of another cold front that arrives by the end of the week. This as the large upper-level ridge in the west flattens some and shifts toward the Plains. The ridge will rebuild some later in the week and support another cold front to pass through. Some patchy light precipitation appears possible with the front, but the odds of a more general wetting precipitation event appear low at the moment. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period. Gusty south to southwest winds this morning will shift to the north this afternoon and early evening while remaining gusty. Wind gusts of 25-30 knots are expected both ahead of and behind the front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 46 68 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 52 72 50 72 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 52 73 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 39 65 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 44 68 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 44 63 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 47 70 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 42 63 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 F10 47 70 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 55 71 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>075. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>061. AR...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-010. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...05