FXUS64 KTSA 100236 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 936 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 - Pleasant weekend ahead with only low shower chances across mainly southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas Sunday. - Low shower and storm chances persist over western Arkansas Monday. - Warmer weather is on tap for next week. - A more unsettled weather pattern could return for the end of the week on into the following weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 936 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 The east to west oriented upper level trof axis that had been been slowly sagging southward through the region the past couple days was located near/just south of the Red River as of mid evening. With the boundary now exiting the CWA and the loss of daytime heating, most of the afternoon showers/storms had dissipated. A couple weakening showers remained in southeast Oklahoma, and should dissipate shortly. Overnight tonight, the trof axis continues its southward track and joins with an area of low pressure over Louisiana to form a closed cut off low for Saturday. In the wake of the departing trof, north to easterly winds both at the surface and aloft will help to transport some drier air into the CWA which will help temperatures overnight to fall into the 40s/50s. High level clouds associated with the developing low to the southeast looks to move back over western Arkansas late tonight while mostly clear skies remain for the rest of the CWA. These high clouds could potentially limit the amount of cooling in far northwest Arkansas. Thus for the evening update, have added minor adjustments to min temps along with hourly temp/dewpoint trends to account for latest obs and the arrival of high clouds. The rest of the forecast seems to be in good shape at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Friday) Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 A quiet day is forecast to start the weekend in the wake of today's wave. Eventually a cutoff upper low will organize to our southeast over LA this weekend. Moisture wrapping around the north side of the circulation could yield some showers spreading into western Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma on Sunday. The upper low is expected to begin lifting north on Monday as it starts to feel the influence of the big western CONUS trough, acting to "kick" it along. Again, moisture wrapping around the back side of the system will maintain at least low shower and storm chances over mainly western AR. Rain chances end Monday evening with the loss of daytime heating and a departure of the upper system to the northeast. A warming trend starts Tuesday and will peak on Wednesday ahead of a weak boundary for Thursday. Models keep the area dry thru Thursday as the bulk of the energy from the western CONUS trough lifts north of the region, leading to strong capping over the southern Plains. By Friday, a stalling boundary interacting with an approaching southwest CONUS trough will bring increasing chances for storms, in what is likely to be the start of a more unsettled weather pattern that will extend into the following weekend. Lacy && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 VFR conditions are expected for all terminals through the TAF period. FEW-SCT clouds in the 4-7 kft layer will gradually diminish as the sun sets the next few hours. Portions of southeast OK may see an isolated shower or thunderstorm during this time, but all precipitation will cease this evening. Winds will remain light and out of the northeast, with a few gusts to 15 kts. A deck of high clouds return to the area Saturday late morning, particularly for northwest Arkansas. && .PRELIMINARYPOINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 50 74 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 54 77 53 76 / 10 0 0 20 MLC 53 74 51 75 / 10 0 0 10 BVO 46 75 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 49 73 50 74 / 0 0 0 20 BYV 51 72 51 73 / 0 0 0 20 MKO 51 74 50 76 / 10 0 0 10 MIO 47 73 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 F10 50 73 50 76 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 56 74 53 71 / 10 0 0 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...06