FXUS64 KTSA 091918 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 218 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 - Low shower and storm chances mainly south of I-40 into the early evening. - Pleasant weekend ahead with only low shower chances across mainly southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas Sunday. - Low shower and storm chances persist over western Arkansas Monday. - Warmer weather is on tap for next week. - A more unsettled weather pattern could return for the end of the week on into the following weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 A west-east oriented upper trough axis near the Red River is dropping south. The cooler temps aloft, increasing NErly flow aloft, daytime heating and slightly better dewpoints in the lower Ark River Valley support the idea presented by the latest short- term CAMs. That is of widely scattered shower and storm development by late this afternoon in that area with progression toward the southwest across SE OK into the evening. Given the potential for this activity to persist beyond 00Z, have elected to insert low PoPs over SE OK thru 03Z. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Friday) Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 A quiet day is forecast to start the weekend in the wake of today's wave. Eventually a cutoff upper low will organize to our southeast over LA this weekend. Moisture wrapping around the north side of the circulation could yield some showers spreading into western Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma on Sunday. The upper low is expected to begin lifting north on Monday as it starts to feel the influence of the big western CONUS trough, acting to "kick" it along. Again, moisture wrapping around the back side of the system will maintain at least low shower and storm chances over mainly western AR. Rain chances end Monday evening with the loss of daytime heating and a departure of the upper system to the northeast. A warming trend starts Tuesday and will peak on Wednesday ahead of a weak boundary for Thursday. Models keep the area dry thru Thursday as the bulk of the energy from the western CONUS trough lifts north of the region, leading to strong capping over the southern Plains. By Friday, a stalling boundary interacting with an approaching southwest CONUS trough will bring increasing chances for storms, in what is likely to be the start of a more unsettled weather pattern that will extend into the following weekend. Lacy && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 VFR conditions should prevail through the period, along with northeasterly winds around 10 kts or less. Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon could impact mainly MLC and FSM but given the expected sparse coverage and reduced potential for on station impacts, a mention will not be included in the TAFs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 49 74 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 54 77 53 76 / 20 0 0 20 MLC 53 74 51 75 / 20 0 0 10 BVO 45 75 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 47 73 50 74 / 0 0 0 20 BYV 49 72 51 73 / 0 0 0 20 MKO 50 74 50 76 / 10 0 0 10 MIO 47 73 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 F10 50 73 50 76 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 56 74 53 71 / 20 0 0 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...22