FXUS64 KTSA 091630 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1130 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 935 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 - Spotty shower and storm chances Friday south of I-40. - Pleasant weekend with low chance of showers/storms across mainly western Arkansas Monday. Warming trend next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1049 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 The forecast is largely on track, with only modest changes made to the POP/Weather/Sky forecast. Near term models showing afternoon shower/thunderstorm development in response to the upper low farther north than the previous forecast, nearer to the I-40 corridor. Given this and where satellite is currently showing the most robust cu development, a northward expansion in the mentionable POPs is warranted. Also leveraged the short-term consensus blended guidance to adjust cloud cover upward in much of the southern half of the forecast area. Updated forecast already out. && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Elongated upper low extends across MS Valley westward into OK/AR this morning. This will result in isolated mainly diurnally driven convection again today, mostly confined to areas south of I-40. Otherwise some areas of low clouds and patchy fog early this morning followed by a seasonably warm afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Above mentioned low becomes increasingly cut off over the lower MS Valley into the weekend with drier and more stable airmass into our area bringing a dry and pleasant weekend. By Monday the low is forecast to drift back north and may move close enough for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to expand back westward into parts of AR Monday. Much of next week will be characterized by increasingly warm and humid conditions with gusty south winds and well above normal temperatues by mid-week. Indications are that we will begin to transition into a bit more active pattern closer to next weekend, which may be a period to monitor for potential severe weather. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 VFR conditions should prevail through the period, along with northeasterly winds around 10 kts or less. Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon could impact mainly MLC and FSM but given the expected sparse coverage and reduced potential for on station impacts, a mention will not be included in the TAFs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 76 49 74 51 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 78 54 77 53 / 20 0 0 0 MLC 76 52 75 51 / 20 10 0 0 BVO 76 45 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 75 47 74 49 / 10 0 0 0 BYV 74 48 72 51 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 76 50 74 50 / 10 0 0 0 MIO 74 46 73 49 / 0 0 0 0 F10 76 50 73 50 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 74 55 74 53 / 20 10 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...22