FXUS64 KTSA 091112

AFDTSA



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tulsa OK

612 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 935 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 



  - Spotty shower and storm chances Friday south of I-40. 



  - Pleasant weekend with low chance of showers/storms across 

    mainly western Arkansas Monday. Warming trend next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Today)

Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



Elongated upper low extends across MS Valley westward into OK/AR 

this morning. This will result in isolated mainly diurnally driven

convection again today, mostly confined to areas south of I-40. 

Otherwise some areas of low clouds and patchy fog early this 

morning followed by a seasonably warm afternoon.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Tonight through Thursday)

Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



Above mentioned low becomes increasingly cut off over the lower MS

Valley into the weekend with drier and more stable airmass into

our area bringing a dry and pleasant weekend. By Monday the low 

is forecast to drift back north and may move close enough for 

isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to expand back 

westward into parts of AR Monday.



Much of next week will be characterized by increasingly warm and

humid conditions with gusty south winds and well above normal

temperatues by mid-week. Indications are that we will begin to

transition into a bit more active pattern closer to next weekend,

which may be a period to monitor for potential severe weather.



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 611 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



Patchy fog at the northwest Arkansas sites will dissipate by mid

morning. VFR conditions will then prevail for the rest of the 

forecast period. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TUL   76  49  74  51 /   0   0   0   0 

FSM   78  54  77  53 /  10   0   0   0 

MLC   76  52  75  51 /  20  10   0   0 

BVO   76  45  75  48 /   0   0   0   0 

FYV   75  47  74  49 /   0   0   0   0 

BYV   74  48  72  51 /   0   0   0   0 

MKO   76  50  74  50 /  10   0   0   0 

MIO   74  46  73  49 /   0   0   0   0 

F10   76  50  73  50 /  10   0   0   0 

HHW   75  55  74  53 /  30  10   0   0 



&&



.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OK...None.

AR...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...14

LONG TERM....14

AVIATION...05