FXUS64 KTSA 051128

AFDTSA



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tulsa OK

528 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES... 

Updated at 525 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026



 - Temperatures near seasonal averages into the upcoming weekend,

   then begin to warm into early next week.

 

 - A weak upper-level disturbance and a cold front will bring 

   shower chances to the area on Thursday.



 - Pleasant and largely dry conditions persist Friday and through the

   middle of next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Through Thursday)

Issued at 1045 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026



Through the overnight hours tonight, expect pleasant conditions

with temperatures dropping into the 40s areawide. A few isolated

patches of fog will be possible, especially in the normally

favored locations and sheltered valleys. Otherwise, relatively dry

surface air will limit more widespread fog development. Winds will

remain light through the overnight period.



A compact mid level wave currently tracking east through Colorado

will continue east southeastward into the Ozarks Region, while 

weakening, by late in the day Thursday evening. This will bring 

increasing cloud cover and rain chances to the area during the 

afternoon hours. Better rain chances will reside across east 

central Oklahoma with lesser chances extending into portions of 

far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Moisture return ahead 

of this system is pretty modest which will limit overall rain 

amounts. Instability is also expected to be very limited. 

Therefore, have left out mention of thunder, though an isolated 

rumble of thunder or two is not out of the question across eastern

Oklahoma. Overall coverage and intensity of showers will diminish

with southeastward progression into the evening hours. Rain 

amounts will likely range from one tenth to one quarter inch for 

the most part. An isolated location could pick up near one half 

inch across east central Oklahoma where showers will be heaviest.



Near or just below normal temperatures will be common under the

increasing cloud cover across eastern Oklahoma, while highs will

likely climb above normal to around 70 across the southern and

eastern parts of the forecast area where clouds will stay more

scattered through much of the daylight hours.



Bowlan



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

Issued at 1045 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026



The passing wave will force another frontal boundary through the

region Thursday night into Friday bringing reinforcing shot of

cooler air into the region for the weekend. Mostly cloudy skies,

especially across the north on Friday will likely keep highs in

the 50s for many locations. some light drizzle or sprinkles could

also be possible during the day Friday before skies begin to clear

by mid to late afternoon. Surface high pressure will settle over

the region through the weekend leading to some cool nights.

Locations across the north could dip into the 30s both Saturday

and Sunday morning, with a few of the normally colder spots

possibly dropping to near freezing. 



Temperatures begin to rebound by late weekend into next week as

surface ridging shifts east and southerly flow returns to the

region. Highs will climb back above normal for early next week as

the forecast will remain dry for now after Thursday. A couple of 

weak waves will pass near the region and could bring some chances 

for more showers through next week, but chances are too low to 

mention at this point.



Bowlan



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 525 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026



VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Mid to

high level cloudiness will increase today, and an area of rain is

likely to begin to impact the northeast Oklahoma sites by late

afternoon and will continue into early evening. There is

uncertainty onhow far south and east the rain spreads, so just

mentioned prob30 at KMLC and the northwest Arkansas sites. Skies

will clear at all sites by late tonight.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TUL   66  45  59  40 /  50  30   0   0 

FSM   72  50  66  43 /   0  10   0   0 

MLC   73  46  63  42 /  10  40  10   0 

BVO   61  39  58  34 /  50  20   0   0 

FYV   70  39  60  33 /   0  20   0   0 

BYV   68  46  59  39 /   0  10   0   0 

MKO   69  45  61  39 /  20  40   0   0 

MIO   64  43  58  36 /  10  10   0   0 

F10   70  45  61  40 /  40  60   0   0 

HHW   75  52  70  46 /   0  20   0   0 



&&



.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OK...None.

AR...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...04

LONG TERM....04

AVIATION...05