FXUS64 KTSA 031708

AFDTSA



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tulsa OK

1208 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 1123 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



   - Low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers and storms through

     the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall, downburst winds, and

     lightning will be the primary hazards. 



   - Humid conditions will return by the end of this week with

     heat indices reaching 95-100 F across the area by Saturday

     and continuing through early next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(The rest of today )

Issued at 956 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



A band of showers and thunderstorms centered from north-central

into southeast Oklahoma will gradually shift northeast and

diminish during the early afternoon hours. A few embedded

thunderstorms are expected, but no severe weather. However, as

moisture content remains quite high, pockets of flash flooding

remain possible under any heavier storms. 



The widespread cloud cover, particularly for Oklahoma, will keep

temperatures below normal once again. High temperatures will

mostly be in the mid to upper 80s. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) 

Issued at 1048 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



Showers and storms will diminish Thursday evening, though at least

spotty light showers may persist through the night. Additional

expansion of showers thunderstorms are anticipated late Thursday

night into Friday morning as a weak trough moves across the plains

to our north. PWAT values will be approaching 2 inches in some

places by that time, so any more organized cells could produce

localized heavy rain, with emphasis remaining across eastern OK 

in proximity to deepest moisture. By late afternoon and evening 

the overall forcing weakens and shifts north, but with deep 

moisture remaining in place at least a low threat of a shower or 

storm will persist through the evening of the 4th, however most 

locations should remain dry.



As we move into next week, the upper ridge becomes established

over the southwest states, with local area remaining under weak 

NW flow. The overall pattern favors a return to temps closer to 

normal, but will also maintain at least low thunderstorm chances 

for some areas through mid-week.



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1203 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



Scattered showers with a few thunderstorms continues across

eastern Oklahoma just south of the Tulsa area to just north of

McAlester. Terminals in these areas will remain susceptible to 

periodic showers and isolated thunderstorms into the afternoon 

before rain diminishes. No severe weather is expected, but any 

storms could result in brief heavy rain and lightning. In general,

VFR conditions should continue for all terminals.



Sky cover will thin overnight before another storm system 

increases clouds and rain chances again Friday morning across 

eastern Oklahoma. Confidence in any specific location is low for 

now, so just added vicinity showers for now. Winds will remain 

light and out of the south through the period. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TUL   71  89  73  89 /   0  20  10  30 

FSM   73  92  73  93 /  10  20  10  10 

MLC   71  87  71  90 /  20  40  10  20 

BVO   68  88  70  89 /   0  20  10  30 

FYV   69  88  69  89 /   0  20  10  10 

BYV   69  89  70  91 /   0  20  10  10 

MKO   70  88  71  89 /   0  20  10  20 

MIO   69  89  71  89 /   0  20  10  30 

F10   70  86  71  89 /  10  30  10  20 

HHW   73  86  71  90 /  30  40  10  10 



&&



.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OK...None.

AR...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...06

LONG TERM....14

AVIATION...06