FXUS64 KTSA 031635

AFDTSA



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tulsa OK

1035 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...



.KEY MESSAGES... 

Updated at 1032 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

 

 - Slightly cooler conditions will continue through Wednesday.

   There will be a slight chance for mixed rain and snow west of 

   Highway 75 Wednesday morning. 



 - Much warmer and dry weather Thursday into next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Through tonight )

Issued at 1032 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



A cold front has pushed through the forecast area. Areas of clouds 

and precipitation have moved east with cool and breezy northerly 

flow now in place. These conditions will persist for the remainder

of today and tonight. Highs this afternoon will range from the 

mid 40s in the far north to the upper 50s in the south. 



Overnight tonight, cloud cover will gradually increase as a mid 

level trough axis approaches. A few sprinkles or flurries may 

develop west of Highway 75 in northeast OK, but the majority of 

any precipitation now appears to be west of the forecast area. Low

temperatures will mostly be near to slightly below freezing.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Tomorrow through Tuesday)

Issued at 1032 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



The influence of a trough will remain across the area Wednesday. 

Cool and breezy northerly winds will continue through the day. A 

relatively shallow saturated zone at the top of the mixed layer will 

likely promote persistent cloud cover and maybe a few sprinkles 

during the day Wednesday. With better confidence on more widespread 

low cloud cover, lowered temperatures a bit from the NBM, especially 

for northwest Arkansas where clouds will be most persistent. High 

temperatures will range from the upper 30s to low 40s in the north 

to the upper 40s in the south. 



Thursday morning will be cool as skies clear behind the trough, 

mainly in the mid to upper 20s across the area. Then, upper level 

ridging flexes back into the region. Mostly clear skies with mild 

southerly flow will prevail into the weekend and early next week, 

with only minor disruptions as a few weak transitory boundaries 

brush the area. High temperatures will be in the 60s to 70s with 

lows mainly in the 30s and 40s. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 442 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



Low clouds are expanding northward slowly to the south of an

approaching front. Given satellite trends and recent near-term

model data, believe the bulk of the MVFR ceilings will remain to

the south of both MLC and FSM. Given their current proximity to 

both sites, however, will include TEMPO groups for a couple of 

hours before the northerly wind shift moves through both sites and

greatly diminishes any remaining potential. Shower potential this

morning is highest to the south of both sites also, although 

there is a low potential that mainly FSM could see one on-station

prior to 18Z. Mainly mid and high cloud should prevail thereafter,

although northern terminals will see an increasing potential for

lower clouds at VFR heights late in the period. Additional

rain/snow at this same time has a high likelihood of remaining

west of the terminals. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TUL   30  46  28  61 /  10  10   0   0 

FSM   31  47  28  59 /   0   0   0   0 

MLC   32  49  28  63 /   0   0   0   0 

BVO   27  46  24  61 /  10  10   0   0 

FYV   27  41  25  56 /   0   0   0   0 

BYV   27  40  25  55 /   0   0   0   0 

MKO   29  46  26  62 /   0   0   0   0 

MIO   27  42  26  57 /   0   0   0   0 

F10   31  48  27  64 /   0  10   0   0 

HHW   35  52  29  61 /   0   0   0   0 



&&



.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OK...None.

AR...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...06

LONG TERM....06

AVIATION...22