FXUS64 KTSA 030422

AFDTSA



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tulsa OK

1122 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 1123 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



   - Low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers and storms through

     the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall, downburst winds, and

     lightning will be the primary hazards. 



   - Humid conditions will return by the end of this week with

     heat indices reaching 95-100 F across the area by Saturday

     and continuing through early next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Through Thursday)

Issued at 1048 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



A few high-based showers continue to move across SE OK this

evening, and should see this continue with some expansion in

coverage possible as moist advection persists in the lower 

levels. Most short range guidance continues to support further

development into parts of northeast OK and perhaps west central AR

Thursday morning and through the afternoon with the arrival of

slightly stronger forcing and continued influence of subtropical

Pacific moisture plume, but development into northwest AR is less

likely as deeper moisture is lacking farther east. Fairly

persistent cloud cover for most areas will keep daytime temps 

below normal, albeit with humid conditions and light winds.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) 

Issued at 1048 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



Showers and storms will diminish Thursday evening, though at least

spotty light showers may persist through the night. Additional

expansion of showers thunderstorms are anticipated late Thursday

night into Friday morning as a weak trough moves across the plains

to our north. PWAT values will be approaching 2 inches in some

places by that time, so any more organized cells could produce

localized heavy rain, with emphasis remaining across eastern OK 

in proximity to deepest moisture. By late afternoon and evening 

the overall forcing weakens and shifts north, but with deep 

moisture remaining in place at least a low threat of a shower or 

storm will persist through the evening of the 4th, however most 

locations should remain dry.



As we move into next week, the upper ridge becomes established

over the southwest states, with local area remaining under weak 

NW flow. The overall pattern favors a return to temps closer to 

normal, but will also maintain at least low thunderstorm chances 

for some areas through mid-week.



&&



.AVIATION...

(00Z TAFS)

Issued at 609 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



VFR conditions will prevail, with a possible exception of some

light MVFR fog over in NW AR around daybreak. Storm chances

increase on Thursday, with prob30 mentions included in the more

favorable time windows at the E OK and KFSM sites. In the low

chance that a storm hits a terminal directly, vsbys would likely

drop below VFR for a time. Confidence/coverage of storms not 

expected to be great enough to include far NW AR sites at this 

time.



Lacy



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TUL   88  71  89  74 /  20  10  30  20 

FSM   90  73  92  74 /  20   0  20  10 

MLC   86  70  89  72 /  40  20  30  10 

BVO   88  68  89  72 /  20  10  30  20 

FYV   89  68  90  71 /  10   0  20  10 

BYV   90  69  90  70 /   0   0  20  10 

MKO   86  70  87  72 /  20  10  30  10 

MIO   89  69  90  71 /  10   0  30  10 

F10   85  70  87  72 /  30  10  30  10 

HHW   85  72  88  72 /  40  20  30  10 



&&



.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OK...None.

AR...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...14

LONG TERM....14

AVIATION...30