FXUS64 KTSA 022348 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 548 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 548 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 - Slightly cooler Tuesday to Wednesday behind a weak cold front. - Low rain chances Tuesday morning across SE OK into west- central AR, then a slight chance for mixed rain and snow northeast OK Wednesday morning. - Much warmer and drier weather resumes Thursday into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1057 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Temperatures will warm appreciably again today, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. High clouds will increase into the afternoon, but are not expected to keep temperatures down too much from their potential. A weak front will begin to move through the area overnight, with a pretty large variance in low temperatures as a result. Lows will range from the low 30s in the north to mid 40s in the south. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1057 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Somewhat cooler air will spill into the area Tuesday behind the cold front, but there is significant model spread in terms of observed temperatures. The main uncertainties relate to the spatial extent of low clouds as well as how long they may stick around. The most likely outcome is probably a blend of the spread, with some low clouds for part of the day, breaking apart in the afternoon. In this case, high temperatures would drop about 10 degrees from today. Model guidance continues to indicate just enough lift and moisture return for some light showers along the front as it passes through southeast OK and west-central AR. Total accumulation will be minimal. A quick moving shortwave will then move through Wednesday morning. Guidance is mostly consistent in showing a brief narrow corridor where a few showers could develop. The best chance appears to be across central to eastern OK, particularly the far NW tip of the forecast area. The air will be marginally cold enough that rain could mix with or change to snow briefly. As it looks now, the worst case scenario appears to be a brief dusting, with no accumulation being the most likely outcome. Strong ridging will then develop across the Plains for the late week period and into the weekend. Temperatures will respond, with highs in the 50s-60s Thursday onwards. A few spots could even hit 70 F on Friday. No additional rainfall will occur until beyond the 7 day forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 548 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Broken high clouds remain common this evening, though mid level clouds are forecast to lift into southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas late evening and overnight tonight. At the same time, a cold front is expected to drop into the region and push through Tuesday morning. Ahead of the front, scattered/broken MVFR conditions look to develop in southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas early Tuesday morning along with a slight chance of light rain. At this time, the greater potential for MVFR conditions is KFSM with lesser potential for KFYV/KXNA/KROG/KMLC. Will use Tempo groups for timing of greater potential. Behind the front, a period of scattered high clouds are forecast before additional high clouds move in Tuesday afternoon. Winds through the period start out southerly and then vary to west and northwesterly behind the frontal passage. Also, stronger winds aloft will aid in low level wind shear for most locations tonight into Tuesday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 35 50 29 47 / 0 0 10 20 FSM 38 53 29 49 / 20 20 0 10 MLC 41 55 31 50 / 20 0 0 10 BVO 29 49 26 45 / 0 0 20 20 FYV 36 47 25 43 / 20 10 0 10 BYV 37 47 26 42 / 10 10 0 10 MKO 37 52 29 47 / 10 0 10 10 MIO 32 45 25 42 / 0 0 10 10 F10 37 54 30 49 / 10 0 10 20 HHW 45 59 32 52 / 30 20 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...20