FXUS64 KTSA 021734

AFDTSA



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tulsa OK

1234 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025



   - Daily isolated to widely scattered showers and storms

     possible the rest of this week with locally heavy rains, 

     downburst winds, and lightning being the primary hazards. 



   - Hot and humid conditions will return by the end of this week

     with heat indices generally 95-105 F across the area.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Today and Tonight)

Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025



High pressure ridge over the Southern Plains today, though low

level moisture will begin to increase in parts of the area this

afternoon, mainly closer to I-35. A pop-up shower or thunderstorm

is certainly possible into parts of eastern OK during the

afternoon and evening, though coverage expected to remain very

limited. Some degree of moisture advection will continue tonight,

potentially leading to some elevated convection spreading into

eastern OK late tonight. Temps will remain a bit below average.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Thursday through Tuesday)

Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025



Low level moisture should continue to deepen some Thursday as

ridge remains in place. Most of the CAM solutions develop at least

isolated storms into eastern OK through the afternoon, with a bit

more coverage compared to today it appears. By Friday a weak 

upper trough will pass to our north and weakens the ridge 

sufficiently for scattered convection, especially over the 

northern half of the local forecast area. This pattern should 

linger into the weekend and keep isolated to scattered 

thunderstorms with temps a little below average. Severe weather

chances still appear low at this time, but the threat of lightning

will remain present through the holiday weekend, and perhaps a few

localized strong wind gusts.



For the most part the upper ridge is forecast to remain centered

to our west early next week, maintaining low chances of storms

through Tuesday with temperatures trending closer to normal. At

this point no excessive heat is anticipated through the first half

of next week.



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



Scattered to broken mid and high clouds will remain common into

this evening across the CWA as an area of increased vorticity

moves into the region. A slight chance of a sprinkle/shower/storm

exists into early evening, though with limited coverage/impact to

any one terminal will keep TAFs dry for now. Scattered/broken high

clouds are expected to remain overnight into Thursday with

additional mid clouds developing Thursday morning. Indications for

patchy areas of reduced visibility in far northwest Arkansas could

develop late tonight and will add a tempo group for XNA/ROG/FYV.

Additional shower/storm chances increase Thursday morning over the

CWA and have added Prob30 groups for timing. Winds through the

period are forecast to be variable to southerly. Other than the

potential for lower visibility tonight in far northwest Arkansas,

VFR conditions are forecast. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TUL   90  71  88  71 /  10  10  40  10 

FSM   91  72  91  73 /   0  10  30  10 

MLC   89  72  87  71 /  20  20  50  20 

BVO   90  67  88  68 /  10  10  30  10 

FYV   87  67  88  68 /   0   0  30  10 

BYV   88  66  90  68 /   0   0  10  10 

MKO   88  71  86  71 /  10  10  40  20 

MIO   88  67  88  69 /   0   0  20  10 

F10   87  71  85  71 /  20  20  50  20 

HHW   90  73  88  72 /  20  20  40  20 



&&



.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OK...None.

AR...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...14

LONG TERM....14

AVIATION...20