FXUS64 KTSA 020529 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 - Daily isolated to widely scattered showers and storms possible the rest of this week with locally heavy rains, downburst winds, and lightning being the primary hazards. - Hot and humid conditions will return by the end of this week with heat indices generally 95-105 F across the area. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 High pressure ridge over the Southern Plains today, though low level moisture will begin to increase in parts of the area this afternoon, mainly closer to I-35. A pop-up shower or thunderstorm is certainly possible into parts of eastern OK during the afternoon and evening, though coverage expected to remain very limited. Some degree of moisture advection will continue tonight, potentially leading to some elevated convection spreading into eastern OK late tonight. Temps will remain a bit below average. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Low level moisture should continue to deepen some Thursday as ridge remains in place. Most of the CAM solutions develop at least isolated storms into eastern OK through the afternoon, with a bit more coverage compared to today it appears. By Friday a weak upper trough will pass to our north and weakens the ridge sufficiently for scattered convection, especially over the northern half of the local forecast area. This pattern should linger into the weekend and keep isolated to scattered thunderstorms with temps a little below average. Severe weather chances still appear low at this time, but the threat of lightning will remain present through the holiday weekend, and perhaps a few localized strong wind gusts. For the most part the upper ridge is forecast to remain centered to our west early next week, maintaining low chances of storms through Tuesday with temperatures trending closer to normal. At this point no excessive heat is anticipated through the first half of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 90 71 89 73 / 0 10 10 0 FSM 91 72 91 72 / 0 0 10 0 MLC 89 71 89 72 / 10 10 10 10 BVO 90 68 89 70 / 0 0 10 0 FYV 88 66 89 70 / 0 0 10 0 BYV 88 65 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 88 70 86 71 / 0 10 10 0 MIO 88 67 89 70 / 0 0 10 0 F10 87 70 86 71 / 10 10 20 10 HHW 90 73 89 73 / 10 10 20 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...05