FXUS64 KSJT 271717 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1217 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Strongest cold front of the season for Tuesday and Wednesday. Strong northwest winds expected throughout the day Tuesday behind the front. - There are medium chances (40-60%) of a frost Thursday morning for areas south of I-20. There are low chances (10-20%) for temperatures reaching freezing for this same area. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 238 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Early this morning a weak boundary was draped across the northern Concho Valley. North of this boundary easterly upslope flow was advecting upper 50s and lower 60s dewpoints into the Big Country. Low stratus and/or patchy dense fog will likely develop (as indicated by high res model guidance) given the near saturated moisture profile. A dense fog advisory may be needed later this morning if fog becomes widespread enough. Any low stratus/fog should mix out by the mid morning hours as the overnight inversion lifts. Otherwise, it will be another very warm day area wide. Winds will become west-southwest/downslope this afternoon. Warm air advection and plenty of sunshine will promote highs in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees, well above normal for the end of October. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 First strong cold front of the season still looks to arrive late Monday Night into Tuesday morning across West Central Texas, bringing the coldest temperatures so far this fall to the area. Strong cold advection during the day on Tuesday will limit afternoon temperature climb across the northern portions of the area, keeping temperatures in the 60s in many locations. A little warmer farther south but still cooler than what we see this afternoon. Strong pressure gradient moves into the area so bumped wind speeds up to account for this. May see some wind gusts above 30 mph, with some higher gusts at some of the elevations that are a little higher. Surface high starts to build into the area on Wednesday and this will be the coolest day of the week. Model blends show highs in the mid 60s, but some of the models like the NAM keep temperatures in the 50s for much of the day. Given plenty of sun, will keep highs in the 60s but worth watching to see if these end up needing to be lowered even more. Thursday morning will see the coldest morning as radiational cooling allows temperatures to drop. Latest model blends dropped temperatures about 5 degrees from the previous forecast with lows in the mid/upper 30s pretty much areawide. However, the latest NAM which often handles these cold mornings better than other models, has temperatures well down in the lower 30s and even upper 20s across the southern half of the area where cold air drainage is maximized in the low lying river valleys and lake shores. Have dropped temperatures down a couple more degrees with a frost looking much more likely than earlier forecast, with even a light freeze possible in a few locations. Warming trend starts Thursday afternoon but it will be relatively slow. HIghs rebounding into the mid 70s for Halloween and into the 80s by Sunday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 VFR conditions expected for the rest of the day with decreasing winds. Overnight, a strong front will pass through the region, switching winds out of the northwest between 10-13Z. Strong north to northwest winds will develop and increase substantially after 13Z and continue beyond the end of the TAF period. Some brief MVFR ceilings could also occur for Abilene and Sweetwater along the frontal boundary. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 57 70 44 63 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 57 73 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 60 79 43 65 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 57 73 44 63 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 57 69 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 55 74 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 62 73 44 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...SK