FXUS64 KSJT 270545 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1245 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy dense fog possible across the Big Country this morning. - Low to medium chances (30-60%) of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph Tuesday afternoon. - Much colder by mid week with low chances (10-30%) for frost across areas south of I-20 by Thursday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 The combination of low level moisture and light winds will be a good set up for radiational fog tonight and Monday morning across much of the area. For now, going with patchy dense fog north of a Mertzon to Junction line. The visibility may fall to less than 1/4 of a mile at times. Motorists should look out for sudden reduction in visibility late tonight and Monday morning. A Dense Fog Advisory may eventually be needed. Otherwise, going with a dry forecast for the next 24 hours. Overnight lows will be in the 50s. Warmer on Monday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Sunday) Issued at 144 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 West Central Texas will be in zonal flow aloft Monday night, while a strong upper level trough pushing south across the Northern and Central Plains will push a strong cold front towards Texas. Monday night/Tuesday morning will see lows in the upper 50s/low 60s as the cold front approaches the region from the north. Tuesday morning, the front will push south quickly across West Central Texas, with the front all the way through the I-1O corridor by early in the afternoon. The front will bring significantly cooler air behind it (highs Tuesday in the upper 60s to mid 70s), along with gusty north winds. Models indicate surface winds of 20-25 mph, while northerly winds at 850 mb of 35-40 kt could mix to the surface for potential wind gusts of 40-45 mph. In fact, the experimental NBM 5.0 data shows a low to medium (30-60%) chance of 40 mph gusts Tuesday afternoon. Thus, we will have to monitor for winds potentially reaching Wind Advisory levels Tuesday afternoon. The aforementioned trough will push into the Mississippi River Valley Tuesday night through Wednesday, leaving our region in strong northwest flow aloft, while high pressure and northerly winds at the surface will continue cold air advection into our area. This will result in lows Wednesday morning in the low to mid 40s and highs Wednesday afternoon in the low to mid 60s. With a weaker pressure gradient Wednesday night/Thursday morning, winds will be lighter. This, along with clear skies and low dewpoints in the teens to 20s will result in good radiational cooling conditions. Therefore, we'll likely see lows in the upper 30s to low 40s, and potentially cold enough to cause frost conditions in some areas. Currently, the chance of temperatures reaching at or below freezing Thursday morning is low (10-30%). Expect another cool day on Thursday, with highs in the low to mid 60s. Southerly low level winds return Thursday night into Friday, which will bring some warming (although it will still be chilly Friday morning, with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s again), with highs Friday back into the low 70s. The outlook for trick-or-treating looks overall pleasant, with dry weather, light winds, and temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. A weak upper trough and an accompanying weak cold front looks to move down across the region late Friday night through Saturday, but the effects to our sensible weather don't look too meaningful at the moment, as no precipitation is expected with it and highs Saturday may be similar to what they are on Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Patchy dense fog is possible early this morning in the Big Country. Have maintained a TEMPO group for 2 mile visibility at KABI although there is ~40-50% chance that visibilities could drop to down to 1/2SM or less. Any fog should burn off by 14-15Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail on Monday. Winds will become south-southwesterly at 10-15 knots in the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 86 59 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 87 58 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 89 60 81 43 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 88 59 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 85 58 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 87 56 75 42 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 87 62 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....SJH AVIATION...42