FXUS64 KSJT 091902 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 202 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon. - Significant change to hotter temperatures early to middle next week, with dry conditions. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will be ending early this evening with loss of heating. These are not expected to be severe, but brief heavy rain and lightning are possible. Gusty north winds also decrease this evening, becoming light overnight. Lows are expected in the lower to mid 50s, with a few protected/low lying areas falling into the upper 40s. Saturday will be similar to today, although north winds will be a couple mph lower. If an isolated afternoon shower does develop, it would be from Junction to Mason to San Saba, closer to the upper low in Louisiana. Highs Saturday will be in the upper 70s to near 80. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 An upper low to our east will meander over Louisiana this weekend. An upper level ridge will be centered over the southwestern states and extend into the central Plains. Our area will have generally northerly flow aloft, between these two systems. Northerly surface winds will be maintained with surface high pressure extending from the Midwest southwest into the western half of Texas. With this setup, below normal temperatures will continue for our area with cool nights and pleasant days. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s Saturday, and mid 70s to lower 80s Sunday. Skies will be mostly clear overall, with some patchy clouds possible at times over our eastern counties. Changes in the upper level pattern will result in a significant change to much hotter temperatures for our area next week. The aforementioned upper low will lift northeast into the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday. The aforementioned upper ridge will shift east over Texas and the Southern Plains in the early to mid-week time frame, while an upstream deep upper trough gradually moves east across the western CONUS. The notable warming trend will begin Monday when our winds switch around to the south. The summer-like heat comes Tuesday and Wednesday when a strong 850mb thermal ridge expands east over our area. With generally clear skies each day, highs are expected to be in the mid 90s to 100 degrees Tuesday, and in the upper 90s to 103 degrees Wednesday. This would be the first occurrence of triple digit temperatures this year in our area. Preliminary indications are for temperatures to remain above normal by several degrees or more late in the week, and portions of the area may have some possibility of thunderstorms toward the weekend. Without delving into the details this far out, will just briefly mention that our area may get into southwest flow aloft by that time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 North winds gusting 18 to 23 KTS continue into early evening. Isolated showers/thunderstorms possible this afternoon. Made mention of VCSH at KABI where the potential was highest, but left out elsewhere due to low probability. VFR conditions otherwise. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 54 77 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 53 79 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 53 79 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 54 77 51 79 / 10 0 0 0 Sweetwater 54 77 51 78 / 10 0 0 0 Ozona 53 78 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 54 77 51 79 / 0 10 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...04