FXUS64 KSJT 091151 CCA AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 353 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon. - Significant change to hotter temperatures early to middle next week, with dry conditions. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Upper low will develop over Louisiana late this afternoon, with West Central texas remaining on the back side of this system into the weekend. Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail today, along with breezy north winds developing. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorms just about anywhere this afternoon, so have added low rain chances (10-20) for the afternoon hours. Not expecting severe storms today, due to low shear and instability but brief downpours and some gusty winds are possible. Temperatures will be below normal for this time of year, with afternoon highs in the mid and upper 70s. Dry conditions are expected tonight, with light winds and overnight lows in the low to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 An upper low to our east will meander over Louisiana this weekend. An upper level ridge will be centered over the southwestern states and extend into the central Plains. Our area will have generally northerly flow aloft, between these two systems. Northerly surface winds will be maintained with surface high pressure extending from the Midwest southwest into the western half of Texas. With this setup, below normal temperatures will continue for our area with cool nights and pleasant days. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s Saturday, and mid 70s to lower 80s Sunday. Skies will be mostly clear overall, with some patchy clouds possible at times over our eastern counties. Changes in the upper level pattern will result in a significant change to much hotter temperatures for our area next week. The aforementioned upper low will lift northeast into the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday. The aforementioned upper ridge will shift east over Texas and the Southern Plains in the early to mid-week time frame, while an upstream deep upper trough gradually moves east across the western CONUS. The notable warming trend will begin Monday when our winds switch around to the south. The summer-like heat comes Tuesday and Wednesday when a strong 850mb thermal ridge expands east over our area. With generally clear skies each day, highs are expected to be in the mid 90s to 100 degrees Tuesday, and in the upper 90s to 103 degrees Wednesday. This would be the first occurrence of triple digit temperatures this year in our area. Preliminary indications are for temperatures to remain above normal by several degrees or more late in the week, and portions of the area may have some possibility of thunderstorms toward the weekend. Without delving into the details this far out, will just briefly mention that our area may get into southwest flow aloft by that time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Expect mainly light and variable winds overnight, with breezy north winds developing by mid to late morning, with gusts near 20 knots through afternoon. Winds will diminish by early evening. Could see some spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms just about anywhere this afternoon but due to limited coverage, will not mention in the forecast at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 75 53 77 51 / 10 0 0 0 San Angelo 78 51 79 49 / 10 0 0 0 Junction 80 52 79 49 / 10 0 10 0 Brownwood 74 53 77 51 / 10 0 10 0 Sweetwater 76 54 77 51 / 10 0 0 0 Ozona 76 52 77 49 / 10 0 0 0 Brady 77 54 77 51 / 10 0 10 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...24