FXUS64 KSJT 071057

AFDSJT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Angelo TX

557 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES... 



- Isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms possible 

  along the I-10 corridor this morning. 



- A gradual warmup with more isolated to scattered showers and

  storms possible for Friday and Saturday.



- Above normal temperatures expected next week with triple-digits

  possible for the Big Country.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Today and tonight)

Issued at 219 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026



Early this morning a frontal boundary was draped across south 

Texas. A cool and cloudy airmass was in place across west central 

Texas with temperatures in the mid 50s. Winds were from the 

northeast at about 5-10 MPH. An upper-level low was located over 

northwest Mexico. Low-level moisture was overrunning the cool 

airmass this morning. As the upper low approaches far west Texas, 

it will send embedded waves into west central Texas and increase 

the instability aloft. Showers and embedded thunderstorms should 

develop around sunrise over the Edwards Plateau and expand 

northward to the Concho Valley. Unlike yesterday, the conditions 

do not support severe storms, but they could produce a few strong 

wind gusts. Storms will push eastward through the morning. Given 

the cloud cover, rain chances and the cool airmass, high 

temperatures should only reach the upper 60s to around 70 today 

from the Concho Valley southward. Cloud cover over the Big 

Country will be less with no rain chances so temperatures there 

should reach the upper 70s. The surface frontal boundary will lift

northward this afternoon and evening and rain chances should come

to an end. Skies will remain mostly cloudy overnight as the 

upper- level low continues to feed moisture in at the mid-levels. 

Overnight lows will be in the 50s once again.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Friday through Wednesday)

Issued at 219 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026



A weakening upper-level trough and associated upper-level low 

pressure system will approach far-western Texas Friday, and slowly 

track eastward across West Central Texas Friday afternoon into 

Saturday morning. This system will bring increased chances for 

widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms Friday morning 

through early Saturday morning. There remains some uncertainty with 

regards to the potential for some of these storms becoming severe 

during this timeframe. Models are showing ample low-level moisture 

and modest CAPE values (1000 to 2000 J/kg range), with some models 

showing areas of some higher instability. If these areas of higher 

instability pan out, the potential for severe thunderstorms would 

increase as well. Models are also showing a slight chance for 

showers and isolated thunderstorms early Sunday afternoon and 

evening, but confidence remains lower at this time. As of this 

forecast package, severe thunderstorms chances seem to be more 

limited and isolated across the area. We will continue to monitor 

the potential for more severe thunderstorms and update accordingly. 



Temperatures remain warmer, but moderated by the precipitation and 

associated cloud cover mentioned above, keeping high temperatures in 

the mid 70s to mid 80s Friday and in the mid 80s to lower 90s over 

the weekend and into Monday. Many models show a upper level ridge 

building into place and bringing hotter and dry conditions for 

early/mid next week, with the model blends pushing some highs 

nearing the 100 degree mark across the northwest Big Country Tuesday 

and Wednesday next week. This is a slightly cooler trend in the 

models compared to the previous runs, which reduces confidence of 

high temperatures soaring above the 100 degree mark across the Big 

Country.



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 557 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026



IFR to MVFR ceilings have developed for most of the area and are 

expected to persist for most of the morning, although some 

fluctuation is expected. Showers and thunderstorms should develop

after 15Z for southern terminals and continue into early

afternoon.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Abilene     75  57  82  63 /   0  10  20  10 

San Angelo  71  56  81  60 /  20  10  30  30 

Junction    70  56  79  61 /  30  10  30  40 

Brownwood   72  54  77  60 /  10  10  50  30 

Sweetwater  77  57  84  62 /   0   0  10  10 

Ozona       68  57  80  60 /  30  10  20  30 

Brady       69  55  76  61 /  20  10  40  30 



&&



.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...SK

LONG TERM....TP

AVIATION...SK