FXUS64 KSJT 062316

AFDSJT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Angelo TX

616 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES... 



- Much cooler temperatures expected through Thursday. Isolated to

  widely scattered showers and a few storms possible along the

  I-10 corridor tomorrow. 



- A gradual warmup with more isolated to scattered showers and

  storms for Friday and Saturday.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(This evening through Thursday)

Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



The cold front that moved through the area yesterday, will remain

well south of the area through Thursday. The forecast will remain

dry through tonight, with much cooler temperatures prevailing 

through Thursday in the post frontal airmass. A closed mid/upper 

low will track slowly east across northern Mexico through Friday. 

Weak disturbances out ahead of this feature may result in some 

isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms tomorrow 

morning, through early afternoon. Latest CAM's are rather anemic 

though, so have lowered POPs to low chance (20 percent) for the 

I-10 corridor counties. 



Temperatures will remain below normal through the period, with 

lows tonight ranging from the upper 40s across the Big Country, 

to the low and mid 50s elsewhere. Highs on Thursday will range 

from the low to mid 70s across the Big Country, to the upper 60s 

and lower 70s farther south, where more cloud cover is expected. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Thursday night through next Wednesday)

Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



Chance of a few showers and storms will continue into the weekend

before hot and dry conditions take over for next week,



Upper level trough across Northwest Mexico this morning will only

slowly work its way into the Southern Plains before weakening. 

This will provide at least some lift for Thursday and Thursday 

Night with at least some isolated showers and storms at times. 

System finally approaches the Big Bend for Friday afternoon and 

moves into Texas Saturday, so this will be the most likely time 

periods for a little more widespread convection across the area. 

Whether the storms will be severe or not is another question. 

Plenty of low level moisture but CAPE values generally in the 

1500-2000 J/kg from many models, although a few show higher 

instability. If the higher instability works out, then there will 

be a better chance for severe storms Friday into Saturday. For now

though, it looks more limited.



Highs climb back into the 80s for Friday and Saturday and pushing

90 for Sunday. Many models show a upper level ridge building into

place and bringing hotter and dry conditions for early/mid next

week, with the model blends pushing some highs over the 100 degree

mark across the northwest Big Country. Will stay with the blends

for now, but worth noting is the fact that the ECMWF is cooler and

hold a better chance for more convection into next week, so the

forecast is far from certain.



&&



.AVIATION...

(00Z TAFS)

Issued at 613 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



MVFR to IFR conditions are forecast across terminals located well

south of the I-20 corridor overnight tonight. An isolated, strong

thunderstorm across the I-10 corridor on Thursday morning cannot 

be ruled out completely. Chances are low (20%), however.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Abilene     49  74  57  82 /   0   0  10  30 

San Angelo  52  70  57  81 /   0  10  20  30 

Junction    56  69  57  79 /   0  20  20  40 

Brownwood   52  71  55  78 /   0  10  10  50 

Sweetwater  49  76  58  84 /   0   0  10  10 

Ozona       55  69  58  80 /  10  20  10  20 

Brady       54  69  56  76 /   0  10  20  50 



&&



.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...24

LONG TERM....07

AVIATION...41