FXUS64 KSJT 061825 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 125 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this morning across the Edwards Plateau and northwest Hill Country. - A gradual warmup with more isolated to scattered showers and storms for Friday and Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 138 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026 An east-west oriented cold front was located just south of the Concho Valley this morning. Behind the front, temperatures were in the 50s and 60s under mid-level cloud cover. Storms were expected to develop south of this front by sunrise across the Edwards Plateau and northwest Hill Country. Hi-res models show these storms moving eastward into central Texas by mid-morning as the cold front continues southward. After storms depart the area, a slightly cooler post-frontal airmass will be advected in by north winds across the area. Our forecast calls for high temperatures in the low to mid 80s, but if this airmass ends up being colder with stout cloud cover, temperatures may only reach the mid 70s today. Overnight, an even cooler airmass will move into west central Texas by a 1023mb high pressure center over the Panhandle. This will allow low temperatures to fall to the 50s. Some rural locations across the Big Country could drop into the 40s by sunrise. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 124 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 Chance of a few showers and storms will continue into the weekend before hot and dry conditions take over for next week, Upper level trough across Northwest Mexico this morning will only slowly work its way into the Southern Plains before weakening. This will provide at least some lift for Thursday and Thursday Night with at least some isolated showers and storms at times. System finally approaches the Big Bend for Friday afternoon and moves into Texas Saturday, so this will be the most likely time periods for a little more widespread convection across the area. Whether the storms will be severe or not is another question. Plenty of low level moisture but CAPE values generally in the 1500-2000 J/kg from many models, although a few show higher instability. If the higher instability works out, then there will be a better chance for severe storms Friday into Saturday. For now though, it looks more limited. Highs climb back into the 80s for Friday and Saturday and pushing 90 for Sunday. Many models show a upper level ridge building into place and bringing hotter and dry conditions for early/mid next week, with the model blends pushing some highs over the 100 degree mark across the northwest Big Country. Will stay with the blends for now, but worth noting is the fact that the ECMWF is cooler and hold a better chance for more convection into next week, so the forecast is far from certain. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 MVFR ceilings will linger across the southern terminals through mid afternoon, before lifting to VFR. Otherwise, expect light north to northeast winds the next 24 hours, with additional stratus redeveloping across the far southern terminals towards daybreak Thursday. There is a low chance for some isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms developing along the I-10 corridor from around daybreak through the morning hours tomorrow. Confidence remains low however, so will not mention at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 49 74 57 82 / 0 0 10 30 San Angelo 52 70 57 81 / 0 10 20 30 Junction 56 69 57 79 / 0 20 20 40 Brownwood 52 71 55 78 / 0 10 10 50 Sweetwater 49 76 58 84 / 0 0 10 10 Ozona 55 69 58 80 / 10 20 10 20 Brady 54 69 56 76 / 0 10 20 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...24