FXUS64 KSJT 031857 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 157 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist across the area this afternoon and evening. - A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for much of West Central Texas along and south of i-20.Heavy rainfall is possible with the stronger cells, which may result in localized flooding. - Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this weekend, with temperatures trending warmer. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 134 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Complicated forecast for West Central Texas the next 24 hours. Latest radar shows a large area of showers and storms moving into the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau and this will continue to spread northeast across much of West Central Texas into the evening hours. This activity will continue to move, and likely to produce fairly widespread 1/2 inch to 1 inch totals through sunset, with heavier pockets of 1 to 2 inches possible. This is Round 1 of the precipitation chances. Round 2 is possible late tonight and into Friday morning and is the more uncertain one, in coverage and location as well as rainfall totals. The hi res models have continued to hit on a heavier band developing across some portion of the area, most likely east of an Abilene to San Angelo to Sonora line and focused more of the Hill County and Heartland. This is when an MCV noted across the Trans Pecos this afternoon drifts farther east and interacts with a 30 or 35kt low level jet, potentially producing an enhanced area of lift that spawns training of storms across a 30 or 40 mile wide band. If this happens in this air mass (with precipitable water values soaring well above normal values) rainfall could be torrential and flash flooding would develop very quickly. Still, these features are so weak and the interaction so complicated, if and where this band develops remains uncertain. Given the pockets of heavier rainfall this afternoon and evening, and the potential for a lower probability but much higher impact flood event overnight, opted to run a Flash Flood Watch from this afternoon through sunrise Friday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Rain chances will decrease for our area this weekend, as an upper level high develops over New Mexico. Isolated or widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly diurnally driven, will be possible. With less cloud cover, afternoon high temperatures will be warmer than what our area is currently seeing, but still below normal. Expect highs to be mostly in the mid 80s to lower 90s Saturday, and in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Sunday. With a moist airmass, expect humid conditions. The work week next week is looking dry and hotter for our area. The aforementioned upper high is forecast to strengthen and expand, with its center shifting over the Four Corners area on Tuesday. Our area will be on its eastern periphery, but it will be our dominant weather influence. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected each day. With 850mb thermal ridge strengthening and expanding east into our area, expect highs to be in the lower to mid 90s in the early to middle parts of the week, and in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees later in the week (Thursday and Friday). && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Ongoing showers and storms across West Central Texas continue to produce a mixture of IFR and MVFR cigs across area terminals early this afternoon. Tried to use latest radar trends and high res models to show the most likely time frame for most widespread rainfall, but overall going to see off and on showers over much of the next 18 hours. Back and forth between IFR and MVFR will also continue as the convection rolls through. South to southeast winds will continue. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 73 86 73 89 / 70 50 10 20 San Angelo 72 88 71 91 / 60 40 10 20 Junction 71 86 71 88 / 60 50 10 30 Brownwood 72 84 72 88 / 70 60 10 30 Sweetwater 72 89 73 93 / 60 40 10 20 Ozona 71 87 71 90 / 40 40 10 10 Brady 71 83 71 87 / 70 60 10 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Friday morning for Brown-Callahan-Coke- Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Irion-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard- Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...07