FXUS64 KSJT 031738 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1238 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist across the area this afternoon and evening. - Heavy rainfall is possible with the stronger cells, which may result in localized flooding. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through Friday, with warm and humid conditions persisting. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 202 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 A "rinse and repeat forecast" appears likely for today and tonight as there is not much change to the overall synoptic pattern. The upper-level system remains in place over northern Mexico and the desert southwest while remnant moisture from what was Tropical Storm Barry is surging up through west Texas. The upper-level system will start progressing eastward a bit as it merges with the southwest flow aloft over the western US. Chances are high for PWAT values of over 2 inches, which is indicative of a very moist airmass. This should allow for another round of scattered showers with heavy rain at times and could lead to localized flooding. Overall rainfall amounts from yesterday ranged between a quarter inch to just under an inch, despite some good downpours at times. Showers look to be fairly progressive again with the highest coverage this afternoon, before diminishing overnight. Like the past couple of days, high temperatures will be held below normal for this time of year due to extensive cloud cover and rain chances. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 The upper-level ridge will begin to gradually shift back westward, decreasing rain chances for the Holiday weekend and into early next week. Some scattered diurnal showers and isolated storms are possible for the afternoon/evening hours on the 4th, so there may be some rain lingering around for fireworks on Friday Night. As we move into the weekend and early next week, expect mostly warmer and drier conditions with high temperatures returning in the 90s through Tuesday. By Wednesday, high temperatures will start to approach the triple digits again across the Big Country through the end of next week, with continued dry conditions. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Ongoing showers and storms across West Central Texas continue to produce a mixture of IFR and MVFR cigs across area terminals early this afternoon. Tried to use latest radar trends and high res models to show the most likely time frame for most widespread rainfall, but overall going to see off and on showers over much of the next 18 hours. Back and forth between IFR and MVFR will also continue as the convection rolls through. South to southeast winds will continue. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 82 73 86 73 / 80 60 50 10 San Angelo 83 72 88 71 / 70 50 40 10 Junction 84 71 86 71 / 70 40 50 10 Brownwood 84 72 84 72 / 70 60 60 10 Sweetwater 83 72 89 73 / 80 50 40 10 Ozona 80 71 87 71 / 70 40 40 10 Brady 83 71 83 71 / 60 60 60 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...07