FXUS64 KSJT 030529

AFDSJT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Angelo TX

1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES... 



- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist across the area

  this afternoon and evening.  

 

- Heavy rainfall is possible with the stronger cells, which may

  result in localized flooding. 



- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible

  Thursday through Friday, with warm and humid conditions 

  persisting.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(This evening through Thursday)

Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



As of 1 PM, several bands of showers and a few thunderstorms were

lifting north across roughly the southern half of the forecast

area. This is in response to a weak disturbance lifting north out

of Mexico, within a plume of tropical moisture from the remnants 

of Tropical Storm Barry. This activity will continue to lift north

this afternoon, with additional showers and storms likely 

developing. A very moist airmass (Precipitable Water 2.0-2.25 

inches) will contribute to locally heavy downpours and a threat 

for some localized flooding at times this afternoon. Rain chances 

will persist tonight but areal coverage should be a bit lower due 

to the diurnal nature. Another round of showers and storms will be

possible again tomorrow, especially during the afternoon hours 

once again. Precipitable water values will remain very high, so 

localized flooding will again be a concern tomorrow. Warm and 

humid conditions will persist through tomorrow, with lows tonight 

mainly in the lower 70s, and highs tomorrow afternoon in the 80s.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Thursday night through next Wednesday)

Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



Tomorrow still looks to be the last day with fairly widespread

precipitation across the area, with the activity in the afternoon

persisting into the evening hours. After that though, the upper 

level ridge will begin to build across Southwest US and rain 

chances will begin to dwindle. Some scattered mainly diurnal 

showers and storms will again be possible for the 

afternoon/evening of the 4th so there may be some rain to dodge 

for fireworks Friday Night. A little less activity expected for 

Saturday and Sunday, before mainly dry conditions return for much 

of next week. 



After the cool conditions of the last few days, will see a little

more sun and a little warmer temperatures for the 4th with highs

in the upper 80s, climbing back into the low to mid 90s for the

weekend. With the center of the upper high remaining off to the

west, and with wet soils helping to mitigate temperature climb a

few degrees, looks like we should be able to keep temperatures

below the 100 degree mark for at least the beginning and middle 

of next week.



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



VFR to MVFR ceilings with rain showers will continue to be the

main concern for the next 24 hours. Ceilings and visibilities 

look to go IFR later this morning through this afternoon. However,

low visibilities should be short-lived in the heavier showers that

occur.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Abilene     84  73  86  72 /  80  50  60  10 

San Angelo  84  71  88  71 /  70  50  50  10 

Junction    84  72  87  71 /  70  50  50  10 

Brownwood   85  73  86  72 /  60  50  50  10 

Sweetwater  84  72  89  72 /  70  50  50  10 

Ozona       81  70  86  70 /  60  50  40  10 

Brady       83  71  85  71 /  60  50  50  10 



&&



.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...24

LONG TERM....07

AVIATION...SK