FXUS64 KSJT 020643

AFDSJT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Angelo TX

143 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



...New SHORT TERM...



.KEY MESSAGES... 



- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase across the

  area this afternoon. 

 

- Localized heavy rainfall could occur with any strong cells that

  develop.



- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible

  Thursday through Friday, with warm and humid conditions 

  persisting.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Today and tonight)

Issued at 143 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



Another cloudy, humid, and potentially wet day is on tap. This is 

partly due to the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry, whose associated 

upper-level low is centered over northern Mexico.  Low-level flow 

will continue to push gulf moisture into west-central Texas from the 

southeast. Meanwhile, a diffuse east-west frontal boundary is 

located across the region, which should lift northeastward by this 

afternoon.  PWAT values should increase to between 1.75-2 inches 

through the day and increase the potential for heavy rainfall. A 

piece of mid-level energy will move northward around the remnant 

tropical low and should support chances for thunderstorm development 

this afternoon.  Storms are not expected to become strong or severe, 

but have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall which could 

lead to flooding concerns.  Storms should diminish after sunset this 

evening with some lingering scattered showers overnight.  Given the 

cloud cover and rain showers, high temperatures should be held down 

in the low to mid 80s again for most areas.  The exception will be 

in easternmost counties such as Brown and San Saba, where cloud 

cover and rain chances are lower and highs could reach the low 90s.





&&



.LONG TERM...

(Thursday through Tuesday)

Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



Chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain in the

forecast through Friday, with mainly dry conditions expected for 

the weekend into early next week. The subtropical ridge will 

remain over the northwestern Gulf through the end of the week, 

with a mid/upper level trough out west. This pattern will keep

persistent southerly flow filtering in Gulf moisture across the

region through the end of the week. The airmass will remain very 

moist, with precipitable water values between 1.75 and 2+ inches. 

Any showers or storms that do develop will likely become efficient

rain producers, with the potential for localized flooding. 

Temperatures will be mild for this time of year, due to the 

increase in moisture and cloud cover. Expect warm and humid 

conditions, with highs generally in the low 80s to low 90s for the

end of the work week, and overnight lows mainly in the lower 70s.



Warmer and slightly drier conditions are expected this weekend 

and into early next week, as the subtropical ridge shifts 

westward with time. Daytime highs will climb back into the 90s, 

with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



VFR to occasional MVFR conditions in showers should continue for

today, especially after 12Z. Chances for thunderstorms increase 

by 20Z, and ceilings could briefly go below IFR in heavier

rainfall.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Abilene     86  71  85  72 /  40  40  60  40 

San Angelo  83  70  84  71 /  60  50  60  40 

Junction    85  70  84  70 /  60  40  50  40 

Brownwood   90  71  86  72 /  20  30  40  40 

Sweetwater  85  70  85  72 /  50  40  60  50 

Ozona       80  69  81  70 /  70  60  60  40 

Brady       86  70  84  70 /  30  40  40  40 



&&



.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...SK

LONG TERM....TP

AVIATION...SK