FXUS64 KSHV 272014 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 314 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - Fog has finally lifted across the region, but more will be possible for locations along and south of Interstate 20 overnight into early Tuesday Morning. - Rain returns to the area on Tuesday ahead and along a cold front. Can't rule out an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with this system. - Expect gusty winds and cooler temperatures behind the front on Wednesday, with dry and cool conditions continuing through the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 The morning fog finally lifted across the region just before lunch. Now, the stubborn stratus is starting to lift too, with afternoon CU developing in its place. This will allow temps to warm into the mid to upper 70s across most of the region, with some lower 80 degree readings across portions of East Texas south of Interstate 20. I think most of Southeast Oklahoma, and locations north of I-30 in SW Arkansas, will keep some stratus a little longer this afternoon, which will likely keep their max temps around the 70 degree mark today. By tonight, a long-wave trough will shift out of the Rockies into the Plains, driving a cold front towards the region. A lead short-wave disturbance ahead of that front will bring a return in rain chances for locations north of Interstate 30 after midnight. Farther south across the region, a departing surface high should yield enough influence to keep light winds and little cloud cover, resulting in another round of fog development. Most of the locations expected to see this fog will be along and south of Interstate 20. The rain chances should remain along and north of I-30 through the morning hours, before spreading south and eastward across most of the forecast area, as the cold front arrives and pushes across the region. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk for Deep East Texas and all of our Louisiana forecast zones for tomorrow. I think there will be just enough sfc instability and mid-level lapse rates in place, along with some deep layer, to yield a couple isolated strong to severe thunderstorms along the front. At this time, the main threat appears to be large hail and damaging winds. Strong northwesterly winds in wake of the front will bring in our coldest airmass of the Fall season. Highs on Wednesday, will range from the upper 50s in our northern zones, to mid 60s in our southern areas. A Wind Advisory will probably be needed areawide on Wednesday, as we will see sustained northwesterly winds near 20 mph, with gusts near 30 mph. Winds should diminish as high pressure builds into the region during the remainder of the work week. With mostly clear skies and light winds expected, morning lows will drop into the low to mid 40s on Thursday morning, and upper 30s to lower 40s on Friday morning. Southerly winds will return by the start of next weekend, as high pressure slides east of the region. Dry conditions will remain, but expect a slight warming trend through the weekend. /20/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Low level stratus isn't quick to clear for our northeastern zones this TAF period. Several sites remain borderline MVFR/IFR with low ceilings that should continue to clear out over the next several hours. Scattered cloud cover will remain over much of the area overnight. The main story will be the next round of rain from the northwest beginning to impact KTXK by 28/09z. This rain will move southeast and cover the rest of the region by the end of the period. Winds will also pickup with these showers, with western sites starting to see 15+ kt gusts behind the cold front by the end of the period. /57/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Spotter activation is not expected tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 62 80 51 64 / 10 70 20 10 MLU 57 78 50 62 / 0 70 60 20 DEQ 54 65 44 57 / 60 90 20 20 TXK 59 71 48 60 / 30 90 20 10 ELD 53 71 45 58 / 10 90 40 30 TYR 63 78 49 62 / 10 40 10 0 GGG 60 79 48 63 / 10 60 10 0 LFK 61 84 50 65 / 0 60 20 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...57