FXUS64 KSHV 121134 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 534 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1214 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 - A weak warm front will lift in off the Gulf today as surface high pressure continues to move eastward along the Gulf coast. - This warm front will soon wash out as a lobe of high pressure backdoors in to about I-20 during Friday night with NE wind. - The weekend will see showers early on Saturday as moisture continues to feed inland over the shallow E/NE flow, but these showers and a few thunderstorm will push back south overnight with the strong Arctic front fortifying the backdoor push. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1214 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 A cool start areawide, but not far from seasonal readings with a range of 40s for most and still some chilly upper 30s across our northern fringe. Patchy fog will be spreading in with the warmer southerly flow, but skies should improve for the afternoon with a range of 60s likewise normal fair for mid December. A weak warm front will continue to lift inland, but high pressure will be building to our north. The winds will spin the dial in favor of the backdoor push overnight into early Saturday. Once again some patchy fog and developing showers will be lifting in over the weak back door cool front with some eventual thunderstorms possible with the day's peak of heating. Amounts will remain fairly light with trace amount north to a quarter of perhaps half inch possible along and south of I-20. The shower activity will be quickly dispersing overnight Saturday into early Sunday, as the NE winds are greatly fortified with the much advertised Arctic high pressure settling down the MS River Valley. As it is now, a wide range of temps will be found on Saturday morning with a few upper 30s north to mid 50s far south for lows. Our highs will be chilly mid to upper 50s across our north, but still a wide range of 60s and a few low 70s in our deep south. Winds will vary, but be mostly easterly, and then backing to gusty NE as the cold air advection pours down with Arctic high pressure spilling toward the coast overnight. Ours lows on Sunday will be lightly freezing already in our north with still milder low to mid 40s south of I-20. And this is where highs will more or less stall. A range of mid 30s north to mostly 40s and still a few low 50s in deep east Texas and Toledo Bend country by lunch, but the NE winds will see falling temps during the afternoon. We will clear the clouds finally and take us down to a solid freeze with upper teens north and low to mid 20s elsewhere as the 1045mb high pressure takes hold on our Four-State area. The forecast will remain dry into the new week with a chilly range of 40s for most of us on Monday. The big chill will quickly relent and we'll warm close to 10 degrees by Tuesday morning, but still below average. Our winds will begin shift back to SE overnight Monday, and then pick up a bit and persist with a good warming trend back to above average for mid to late week. Then another slight chance to get wet ahead of next weekend. /24/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 For the 12/12z TAF update...Satellite imagery and surface observations are showing an area of lower ceilings and patchy fog are moving across portions of east Texas, most notably impacting KTYR and KGGG with IFR ceilings. Otherwise, KSHV and KLFK are seeing some lower clouds as well, but they have not dropped below VFR at this time, although I think this will change some over the next few hours. VFR conditions should return for all terminals later this morning and continue through the afternoon hours. Winds will begin to shift to the north as a weak cool front moves through the region, but they are expected to remain light. Lower CIGs and some fog will be possible again for portions of the area towards the end of this TAF period. /33/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1214 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 70 50 65 41 / 0 0 20 40 MLU 69 46 62 35 / 0 0 10 40 DEQ 65 37 56 31 / 0 0 0 10 TXK 66 42 58 36 / 0 0 10 20 ELD 64 39 57 30 / 0 0 10 30 TYR 69 49 68 43 / 0 0 20 20 GGG 69 48 68 40 / 0 0 20 40 LFK 72 55 73 46 / 0 10 30 50 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...24 AVIATION...33