FXUS64 KSHV 092215 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 515 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are underway this afternoon, primarily located across the Louisiana parishes of the FA. Visible satellite is a parade of cumulus streaming south ahead of a weak surface boundary attempting to backdoor into the region. The aforementioned convection will continue to prevail through the late afternoon hours, and likely into the early evening before sunset cuts off the heat driven support. That being said, what does remain left after sunset should be nothing more than some weak showers encompassed within the influence our upper-level disturbance that will hang across the area until late in the day on Monday. In the meantime, as the upper-level disturbance works into the region, the expectation is for the upper-level low to gradually cutoff and remain rather stationary through Saturday. As a result, cloud coverage will continue to cover the region as a weak surface low materializes SE of FA. Factor this in with breezy northerlies, highs tomorrow afternoon will again be comfortable, ranging in the mid to upper 70's, and near 80 deg F. PoPs will be in the forecast again tomorrow, but are mainly confined to the same locations as this afternoon, primarily across our southern and eastern communities of the FA. Percentages remain marginal through the afternoon, with many of those in line for showers/iso. t-storms being at or just below 30 percent. KNAPP && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 By Sunday morning, the core of the upper-level disturbance will be somewhere along or just north of the Louisiana coastline. Given the extended period in which the upper forcing will be present, weak surface cyclogenesis, that will primarily establish Saturday afternoon along the MS/AL coast, will retrograde back west into the Four State Region, and sit overhead of the FA through Sunday. As a result, expect for cooler max temperatures through the afternoon, with showers expected to return once again. The good news is that through Monday afternoon, the upper-level disturbance will begin to lift and exit the region as upper-level ridging slides eastward as a result of longwave progressive troughing across the western CONUS. The downside to this (depending on your preference of temperature) is the return of warmer highs through the middle of the week. Not only will ridging cut off local rain chances, but long range guidance continues to bump up the probability that maxT's will be greater than 90 deg F. Some guidance even goes as far as advertising middle 90's both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. While 7 day QPF values have come up when compared to previous discussions, they remain mainly below an inch, and primarily distributed over the course of the next two days. KNAPP && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 510 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Still dealing with spotty convection across our airspace but while the convection across in the vicinity of the TYR/GGG/TXK and SHV terminals will likely dissipate over the next couple hours, convection in the vicinity of the ELD/MLU and LFK terminals may hang on through the evening hours. May keep some precipitation around the MLU terminal even through the overnight hours. Not certain on redevelopment of MVFR ceilings overnight outside convection but did include it at a few locations but feel like afternoon VCTS should be limited to the ELD/SHV/MLU and LFK terminals by Noon but especially during the afternoon on Saturday. Look or light north winds overnight becoming north near 10kts with somehigher gusts by late morning and into the afternoon on Saturday. 13 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 409 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Spotter activation is not expected today nor through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 62 79 58 71 / 20 20 30 40 MLU 62 72 58 70 / 40 30 40 40 DEQ 55 76 55 71 / 0 0 10 20 TXK 59 76 57 69 / 10 10 20 40 ELD 58 73 54 68 / 20 20 40 40 TYR 60 78 55 70 / 0 10 10 20 GGG 59 78 54 70 / 10 10 20 30 LFK 60 78 55 68 / 20 30 20 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM....53 AVIATION...13