FXUS64 KSHV 031658 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1158 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - Scattered showers and storms will push east across the ArkLaTex through the day today and Friday. Severe weather is not expected. - Heat will increase this weekend and into next week, with heat indices possibly reaching the triple digits, posing a potential hazard for extended outdoor activity. - Afternoon thunderstorm chances will resume Sunday and continue into next week, particularly east of the I-49 corridor. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1126 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Upper-level ridging is still in place over the region, with some showers and thunderstorms currently riding along the flow. These showers will continue to move to the southeast through the afternoon and diminish later in the evening. Even though flooding hasn't been a concern as of late, the region included in these storms have been highlighted under a Marginal Risk of flash flooding in the latest D1 ERO. We will be monitoring rainfall rates and rivers for any changes in flooding. A similar progression of events is expected tomorrow, with far less certainty on both coverage and timing. Rain will generally begin in the northwest around daybreak and move southeast across the center of the region. The uncertainty comes in the location of our usual diurnal convection. Some recent near-term guidance is having the overarching high pressure prevail and keeping these pop-ups from , while others are showing much more activity. Despite the uncertainty, collaboration with neighboring offices and knowing many outdoor activities will be ongoing, I've increased PoPs regionwide for tomorrow afternoon. Activity should gradually diminish after nightfall enough for most fireworks displays to continue. Rain chances seem to diminish going into the weekend, hopefully allowing continued holiday celebrations to be unaffected. Apparent temperatures will still be boarding triple digits thanks to the resident high pressure and increased humidity. These temperatures will stick around into the long term period next week. The afternoon showers will make a return beginning on Monday, particularly in areas east of I-49 as the high over the Desert Southwest expands its influence eastward. Along with the typical afternoon convection, high temperatures look to be returning to the upper 90s. Long-range guidance has trended warm on temperatures in the long term period, so hopefully these estimations come down enough to avoid needing to issue any heat products. /57/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 For the 03/12z TAF update...Radar imagery is showing some showers and thunderstorms moving across our northern zones of southeast Oklahoma and southern Arkansas this morning, with another area of some light returns across deep east Texas just to the west of our region. Satellite imagery is showing some lower clouds, around 3-5k feet being established through much of the region, but nothing has fallen below this so far this morning. Will probably see some low clouds throughout the day today as a cu field develops and rain pushes through the area. Still not enough confidence to mention anything impacting our terminals aside from the mention of VCTS at this time. Otherwise, some BR could limit some visibility towards the end of the period. /33/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 78 93 76 96 / 20 30 10 10 MLU 75 95 74 97 / 20 30 0 10 DEQ 71 89 71 93 / 20 30 0 10 TXK 74 93 75 96 / 30 30 0 10 ELD 72 94 73 96 / 20 30 0 10 TYR 75 89 73 93 / 30 30 10 10 GGG 75 89 73 94 / 30 40 10 10 LFK 76 89 73 94 / 20 20 10 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...57 AVIATION...33