FXUS64 KSHV 021806 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1206 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1030 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 - A cold front and upper level low will allow for overnight showers with increasing coverage and a few thunderstorms on Tuesday, ending overnight. - Below average 50s for highs and 30s for lows return in the wake of the front for Wednesday and Thursday. Then warmer temperatures for Friday and upcoming busy weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1001 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 A cold front approaching from the northwest will move across the region on Tuesday. Southerly flow ahead of the front will allow for continued moisture advection with dewpoint values in the upper 40s to lower 50s tonight increasing to the upper 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday. An upper-trough, in conjunction with the front, to provide enough instability to generate showers across the region beginning late tonight into early Tuesday. The combination of temps climbing into the mid 60s across portions of north Louisiana and Deep East Texas on Tuesday afternoon along with elevated dew point values in the lower 60s, will allow for a few isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon along the front. Showers to shift southeast across north Louisiana on Tuesday evening into the overnight hours before finally exiting the region by daybreak. Upper-level ridge to rebuild across the ArkLaTex in the wake of the front with dry conditions prevailing through the remainder of the forecast period. Temperatures to be generally driven by the location of the surface high with the coldest overnight low temperatures near freezing on Thursday night as the high becomes established over the ArkLaTex. Late in the workweek, however, expect a gradual warming trend as the surface high shifts south of the region with weekend temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 40s. /05/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 For the 02/18z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail initially with southwest winds gusting near 20 kts at times, especially across East Texas and Western Louisiana. Winds should diminish after sunset, but clouds will also gradually increase in coverage ahead of an approaching cold front and upper trough. Ceilings will continue to lower and may fall into the MVFR range at most TAF sites around 03/12z. Flight conditions will continue to deteriorate as showers and thunderstorms develop across the region along and ahead of the advancing front during the last few hours of the period. Nuttall && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1030 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Forecast thunderstorms on Tuesday and through the overnight along and south of I-20 from Texas into Louisiana, are not expected to become severe. Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 66 51 65 38 / 0 30 90 10 MLU 61 45 62 37 / 0 0 90 40 DEQ 60 42 61 30 / 0 40 60 0 TXK 65 50 64 35 / 0 40 80 0 ELD 64 45 60 33 / 0 20 90 10 TYR 65 53 65 38 / 0 30 80 0 GGG 66 51 66 37 / 0 40 90 10 LFK 66 52 66 40 / 0 20 90 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...09