FXUS64 KSHV 021740 AAA AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 - A mostly dry remainder of the week is in store, aside from an isolated afternoon thunderstorm or two. - Heat will increase going into the holiday weekend, with heat indices in the triple digits, posing a potential hazard for outdoor activity. - Rainfall amounts will be generally below an inch through the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1129 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 An upper-level ridge is still firmly in place over the Ark-La-Tx and bringing sunny and warm weather with it. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s in the afternoons and the mid to upper 70s overnight as we approach the holiday weekend. Some typical diurnal thunderstorms will still be possible in the afternoons, along with some greater rain chances along our north and northeastern zones overnight on Thursday. I did increase PoPs a bit for these pop-up showers, especially in our western zones to better align with recent short-range guidance and FWD. Even with the relatively limited rain in the forecast for Independence Day, the public should be aware of the heat and prepare to take steps to mitigate heat-related illnesses during festivities. This trend will continue into next week as the ridge begins to move eastward. The afternoon thunderstorm chances will shift to favor the eastern side of the region beginning on Monday and continue through the week. Next week also has a return of widespread 100+ degree apparent temps, but the NBM has been running a touch hot in the long term so any heat products will be issued if confidence of these temperatures increases. /57/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 VFR conditions will continue through the 02/18Z TAF period. A scattered cu field has developed areawide early this afternoon, and will persist through early evening before diminishing. Isolated convection may develop this afternoon across portions of N LA and Lower E TX S of I-20, near a weak low level bndry that will linger over these areas. However, confidence remains too low to include in the E TX/N LA terminals attm. Any convection that develops will diminish shortly after 00Z, although cirrus cigs will spread E across the area this evening/overnight, with some AC cigs possible over SW AR, which may linger in through much of the morning Thursday. A scattered cu field should again develop over much of the region by late morning, with isolated -SHRA possible mainly over SE OK/portions of SW AR. Scattered areas of deeper convection will be possible by early to mid afternoon over extreme NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/much of N LA, with the potential for thunder needed in later TAF issuances across the SW AR/N LA terminals. Vrb winds 5kts or less this afternoon will become Lt/Vrb after 00Z. /15/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Spotter activation is not expected through tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 79 96 78 93 / 0 20 20 10 MLU 76 95 75 93 / 0 20 10 10 DEQ 72 90 71 90 / 20 30 10 20 TXK 76 95 75 93 / 10 20 10 10 ELD 75 93 73 93 / 10 30 10 10 TYR 76 94 75 91 / 0 20 20 10 GGG 76 94 75 92 / 0 20 20 10 LFK 75 95 76 92 / 0 20 20 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...57 AVIATION...15