FXUS64 KOUN 271825 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 125 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 123 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - Fog and scattered showers/storms are possible late tonight into Tuesday morning. - Strong north winds and cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold front on Tuesday. - The season's first freeze for western Oklahoma is possible Thursday morning. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 123 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Stratus persists over much of Oklahoma today (and through tonight) with some clearing possible near and south of the Red River this afternoon. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the low-60's to mid-70's with generally light E/SE winds. Low level WAA/isentropic lift deepens this evening and overnight as the cold front approaches our CWA. Despite the front arriving within the near- to short-term period, model guidance differs on time of arrival. We are leaning towards the faster nodel guidance. Strong north winds at 20 to 30 mph, cooler temperatures, and lower dewpoint temperatures arrive with the front beginning early Tuesday morning. Patchy fog and drizzle, along with scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder, are possible late tonight and closer towards dawn on Tuesday. Severe thunderstorms are not likely, but cannot rule out a few strong storms. Thompson && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 123 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Shower/storm activity is anticipated to push east of the I-35 corridor by mid- to late-morning. The front exits our forecast area by early afternoon and breezy post-frontal winds are expected to persist throughout the day. Skies will clear from northwest to southeast as drier air moves in behind FROPA and high temperatures will be in the mid-50's to upper-60's. Tuesday night, clear skies and cooler conditions with low temperatures ranging from the mid-30's to low 40's. The coolest day of the week will be Wednesday with high temperatures in the low-50's to low-60's. A Freeze Watch will likely be needed for parts of western and northern Oklahoma on Wednesday night into Thursday morning given the high probabilities (60% to 75%) of reaching the freezing mark. Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Thursday morning will feature chilly temperatures with lows mostly in the 30s, but some lower 40s remain possible across southeast Oklahoma. National Blend of Models (NBM) indicates a high (>70%) probability for below freezing temperatures across far northwest Oklahoma and a medium-to-high (30-70%) probability across western Oklahoma. There is a low (<30%) probability for below freezing temperatures across the remainder of the area. In addition to the chilly temperatures will come the potential for frost across most of the forecast area. The surface high will continue to push south into the Southern Plains Thursday with the cooler airmass in place and continued below-average temperatures. Friday morning there remains a low-to-medium (20-40%) probability of below freezing temperatures across western Oklahoma. Temperatures will then begin to warm towards seasonal temperatures through the weekend as the surface ridge pushes east. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Low clouds persist across much of the area, with IFR or MVFR ceilings at most sites. Marginal further improvement is expected through the rest of the afternoon, but a return to IFR is expected tonight into tomorrow morning. A cold front will be a strong northerly wind shift tomorrow morning, along with a chance for showers across mainly north-central and central Oklahoma. Winds could gust over 30 knots behind the front at some locations. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 55 60 42 54 / 50 60 0 0 Hobart OK 53 63 40 59 / 30 30 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 57 68 43 61 / 10 10 0 0 Gage OK 46 56 35 54 / 60 20 0 0 Ponca City OK 52 58 40 53 / 40 70 20 10 Durant OK 60 66 45 59 / 30 50 0 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...01 SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...08