FXUS64 KOUN 091735

AFDOUN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Norman OK

1235 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1214 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



 - Low chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.



 - Dry with very warm temperatures this week before rain chances 

   return again towards the end of the week and into the weekend.



&&



.NEAR TERM...

(Today and tonight)

Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



Ridging in the west will continue to build and push the cut-off low 

over the Arklatex region towards the Gulf Coast. Daytime heating 

will bring highs in the 70s with a nice northeast breeze of 10 to 15 

mph, along with increasing cumulus cloud development into the 

afternoon. Scattered showers and storms may develop this afternoon 

with MLCAPE values below 1500 J/kg. The main hazard would be 

lightning as weak northwesterly flow aloft will keep shear values 

low and unsupportive for severe weather. Mild and near-normal low 

temperatures in the upper 40s to 50s tonight with clearing skies and 

light north winds.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Saturday through Sunday night)

Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



As the ridge moves east with the northern stream flow, the cut-off 

low will become nearly stationary spinning over the Louisiana Coast. 

Moisture will become a problem over Oklahoma with decreasing chances 

for any additional rain chances. Weak subsidence, mostly sunny skies 

and light winds will give way to continued near normal highs in the 

70s through the weekend.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Monday through Thursday)

Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



By Monday, the cut-off low will start to be absorbed into the ridge 

in the northern stream as another trough digs into the western 

CONUS. Weak ridging aloft through mid-week ahead of the next wave, 

which may bring a return to rain chances towards the end of the 

week. Lee troughing will develop Tuesday and strengthen into 

Wednesday with a return to southerly surface flow. Warm air 

advection will give way to above normal surface temperatures rising 

into the 80s and 90s by mid-week. Very warm temperatures aloft will 

inhibit storm chances through much of the week. Timing, strength 

and track of the next trough axis will play a key role in the 

chances for storms to return to the forecast area towards the end of 

the week and into next week.



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



Widespread broken CU will produce ceilings around 4000 ft this

afternoon as all terminals should remain under VFR conditions 

through the forecast period. There is a 30% probability for 

isolated -TSRA developing through 01Z across southeast Oklahoma 

which may only impact terminal KDUA with brief reduced 

visibilities in rain. Surface high pressure persisting across the 

U.S. Great Lakes Region will maintain north-northeast surface 

winds at 10 kts with 15-20 kt gusts across our terminals. After 

01Z, surface winds will back slightly out of the north becoming 

light. By 15Z, surface winds will veer north-northeast and 

increase 10 kts gusting to 15 kts.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Oklahoma City OK  75  51  74  49 /  20   0   0   0 

Hobart OK         76  50  76  47 /  20   0   0   0 

Wichita Falls TX  76  53  75  49 /  20   0   0   0 

Gage OK           77  48  79  45 /  10   0   0   0 

Ponca City OK     77  48  77  49 /  10   0   0   0 

Durant OK         76  56  76  53 /  20  10   0   0 



&&



.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OK...None.

TX...None.

&&



$$



NEAR TERM...23

SHORT TERM...23

LONG TERM....23

AVIATION...68