FXUS64 KOUN 020711

AFDOUN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Norman OK

111 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 111 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



- Moderating back to near or slightly above normal temperatures

  for much of this week. 



- Very limited precipitation potential this week.



&&



.NEAR TERM...

(Through Monday)

Issued at 111 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



There is some signal in the models for patchy fog in north central

Oklahoma on this Groundhog Day morning and there is a relative 

maximum of relative humidity in this area. The evening shift added

the mention of freezing fog in this area and will keep this in 

the grids through mid-morning. Will watch trends through the 

morning to see if fog develops, how dense it may become and if 

there will be a need for any advisory.



Otherwise highs will generally be warmer than yesterday. Winds 

will increase from the south/southwest today.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Monday night through Wednesday night)

Issued at 111 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



A cold front will begin to nudge into northwestern Oklahoma around

sunset this evening and move southeast and reach the southeast

corner of the forecast area around noon. Again, low-level moisture

will be a late arrival as winds along the Texas Gulf Coast have 

only developed an on-shore component late Sunday afternoon. Low

precipitation chances will develop early Tuesday morning across

far southeastern Oklahoma, but these chances remain limited in the

forecast area with the higher chances developing southeast of the

area as the front moves out. Highs Tuesday will be slightly cooler

than Monday thanks to this front, but remain above average by

early February standards.



A upper-level shortwave in the northwesterly flow aloft approaches

on Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning, and there is some model

signal for the potential of light QPF. NBM does not introduce any

significant POPs given the isolated QPF signal and somewhat

variable locations of this signal, but we have introduced the 

mention of sprinkles and/or flurries in northern Oklahoma. Will

watch the trend in this potential though as the new operational 

ECMWF and NAM are beginning to show a stronger signal late Tuesday

night into Wednesday.



High temperatures on Wednesday will be closer to normal as a

surface ridge settles over the forecast area.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Thursday through Sunday)

Issued at 111 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



Warm temperatures are expected late week and into the weekend as

an upper-level ridge builds over the south central and western

United States. Highs are expected to be in the 60s areawide on

Thursday, with some western and southern areas reaching into the 

70s on Friday and into this weekend. The weather pattern will 

also keep precipitation out of the area through at least Saturday.



By Sunday there is some more uncertainty in the forecast as the

new operational ECMWF brings a cut-off low into Texas on Sunday

and brings at least some potential for precipitation. Most models

and model ensemble members keep this low farther west, so will

keep the forecast warm and dry for now.



Elevated fire weather conditions may develop Thursday afternoon

across portions of northwest and west central Oklahoma, driven

mainly by forecast low humidity. Otherwise the forecasts of wind

and humidity keep fire weather potential in check this week

despite the warm weather.



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 1034 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026



Patchy freezing fog, along with MVFR visibility, is possible over

a portion of north-central Oklahoma on Monday morning. However,

probabilities of visibilities less than 6SM have trended downward

to roughly 35% at KPNC and 30% at KSWO. Although temperatures will

be below freezing when any fog develops, dense freezing fog is 

not expected. Will see increasing high clouds during the day on

Monday with SSW-ly winds gusting to near 20 knots in some areas.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Oklahoma City OK  61  35  55  32 /   0   0   0   0 

Hobart OK         63  34  60  32 /   0   0   0  10 

Wichita Falls TX  67  39  63  35 /   0   0   0   0 

Gage OK           66  29  60  31 /   0   0   0  10 

Ponca City OK     55  30  52  28 /   0   0   0  10 

Durant OK         61  45  61  33 /   0  10  10   0 



&&



.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OK...None.

TX...None.

&&



$$



NEAR TERM...26

SHORT TERM...26

LONG TERM....26

AVIATION...01