FXUS64 KOUN 020442

AFDOUN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Norman OK

1042 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1034 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026



- Moderating back to near or slightly above normal temperatures

  for much of this week. 



- Very limited precipitation potential this week.



&&



.NEAR TERM...

(Today and tonight)

Issued at 1151 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026



The warm up begins today with afternoon highs expected to range from 

the mid/upper 40s mainly in north central OK to low 60s in parts of 

western OK and western north TX. These highs would be 20 to 30 

degrees warmer than yesterday afternoon. The warm up will likely be 

a bit slower in those areas where snowpack lingers compared to 

surrounding locations but still climbing well above freezing aiding 

in the melting of the snow. The start of the warm up today is due to 

southwest/downslope flow.



Southwest winds continue tonight leading to warmer temperatures 

tonight as well. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the 20s 

and 30s which would be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than this morning's 

lows.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Monday through Tuesday night)

Issued at 1151 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026



The warm up continues Monday with highs in the 50s and 60s although 

much of the fa is expected to climb into the 60s. These temperatures 

are above average for early February. Temperatures Monday night are 

also expected to be warmer across much of the fa with lows in the 

30s and 40s.



Models show a shortwave approaching and moving across the region 

Monday night into Tuesday. At the sfc, a sfc low and cold front will 

move across the fa Monday evening into early Tuesday. The airmass 

behind this front is not particularly cold but will cause slightly 

cooler (~5 degrees cooler than Monday) temperatures Tuesday.



The sfc high that moved across the area this weekend will shift into 

the Gulf coast region. This will slow moisture return to the area 

ahead of the previously mentioned shortwave and front. However, 

30s/40s dewpoints are expected to make it into parts of the fa. This 

may be enough moisture for a low (~20%) chance in SE parts of the fa 

late Monday night into Tuesday but the better chances are 

currently expected to be E and SE of the fa with this system.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Wednesday through Saturday)

Issued at 125 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026



The southwestern extent of the upper longwave trough remains over

the area on Wednesday, then this trough shifts east and upper

ridging develops to the west. This will keep any push of cold air

more toward the Great Lakes and East Coast and well northeast of

here. A warming trend will return Thursday and Friday with

temperatures well above normal. The current models do show the 

potential of a front moving through on Friday night, but the 

primary push of cold air remains well to the northeast and only a 

slight cooling is expected if this front does move through. 



As far as fire weather concerns, afternoon humidity on Thursday is

expected to fall below 20 percent in northwest and west central

Oklahoma with moderate west winds at 10 to 15 mph and elevated

fire weather conditions may develop in this area. Otherwise the

forecast humidity and wind values are currently not expected to

produce elevated fire weather conditions elsewhere this week.



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 1034 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026



Patchy freezing fog, along with MVFR visibility, is possible over

a portion of north-central Oklahoma on Monday morning. However,

probabilities of visibilities less than 6SM have trended downward

to roughly 35% at KPNC and 30% at KSWO. Although temperatures will

be below freezing when any fog develops, dense freezing fog is 

not expected. Will see increasing high clouds during the day on

Monday with SSW-ly winds gusting to near 20 knots in some areas.





&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Oklahoma City OK  50  31  61  35 /   0   0   0   0 

Hobart OK         56  29  65  34 /   0   0   0   0 

Wichita Falls TX  57  33  67  39 /   0   0   0   0 

Gage OK           63  27  65  29 /   0   0   0   0 

Ponca City OK     47  25  53  30 /   0   0   0   0 

Durant OK         49  31  63  45 /   0   0   0  10 



&&



.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OK...None.

TX...None.

&&



$$



NEAR TERM...25

SHORT TERM...25

LONG TERM....26

AVIATION...01