FXUS64 KOHX 271723 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1223 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1221 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - Although most of the rain associated with the current active weather system has departed Middle Tennessee, patchy drizzle and low clouds will stick around for awhile. - High rain chances will return to the mid state tomorrow night and Wednesday with the arrival of an unusually strong low pressure system. QPF values suggest much more rainfall with this next event than the last, although the thunderstorm potential is extremely low. - Cooler temperatures will advect into the region following a fropa Wednesday afternoon and evening, and we will remain several degrees below normal for the foreseeable future. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1031 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 At 15Z, a deep upper low was centered near Land-between-the-Lakes while an inverted surface trough was lined up near the Mississippi River. This active weather system will continue to drift eastward across Middle Tennessee this afternoon and evening. The deepest moisture is pooled east of the upper low, so the bulk of the precipitation has already departed Middle Tennessee. There are some lingering showers mainly east of I-65, and primarily along the Cumberland Plateau, although patches of drizzle that are too light to show up on radar are no doubt occurring elsewhere. The morning sounding from OHX shows a nearly saturated column still in place, with Precipitable Water at 1.11", which is above the 75th percentile climatologically, and gives us a PWAT+ of 146, meaning that the observed PWAT is 146% of the daily mean value. And this moisture isn't going anywhere soon, so the low clouds were are experiencing today will stick around at least into tomorrow. But we will enjoy a brief reprieve tonight and tomorrow from the rain, as PoPs decrease temporarily between the soon-to- depart low pressure system and the next. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1031 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Individual model solutions continue to show a rapidly-developing surface and upper-level low pressure system racing eastward out of the Great Plains Tuesday that will bring additional rainfall to Middle Tennessee beginning Tuesday evening and lasting through the day Wednesday, then gradually tapering off Wednesday night and Thursday. Both the surface and upper lows are likely to exhibit rapid intensification before passing over Middle Tennessee and dragging a cold front through the mid state probably Wednesday afternoon and evening. But there will be plenty of wrap-around moisture left to deal with even after the fropa. QPF values have increased with this system. For example, the 13Z NBM gives a 91% probability of measuring 1/2"+ at BNA from 00Z Wednesday until 00Z Thursday, a 74% probability of 1"+ and a 23% probability of 2"+. Rainfall amounts are likely to be greater with this second low pressure system owing to 1) the overall strength of the system and 2) much greater antecedent atmospheric moisture at the onset. However, given that the surface low will pass near or directly across Middle Tennessee, we won't be exposed to an instability- rich environment, so the thunderstorm probability is extremely low; this will be almost exclusively a rain event only. Temperatures will cool off by several degrees following the cold fropa, and this will usher in a prolonged stretch of days with below-normal readings. In fact, both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks favor below-normal temperatures across Middle Tennessee (and also below-normal rainfall). && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 TAF sites in Middle Tennessee continue to be afflicted by low ceilings, lowered visibility, and intermittent showers. This patten is expected to continue into tomorrow morning, when FG becomes a concern at almost every TAF site, and low ceilings drop to LIFR category. Winds will be light overnight, shifting to be from the east or NE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 53 65 50 57 / 40 10 90 90 Clarksville 52 65 49 56 / 20 20 100 90 Crossville 47 57 44 51 / 90 10 90 90 Columbia 52 65 48 55 / 20 20 100 90 Cookeville 50 61 47 54 / 80 10 90 100 Jamestown 47 58 45 52 / 90 20 80 90 Lawrenceburg 51 64 47 55 / 20 10 100 90 Murfreesboro 52 65 49 56 / 40 10 90 90 Waverly 51 65 47 54 / 20 30 100 90 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Holley