FXUS64 KOHX 270326 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1026 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1026 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 - High rain chances tonight gradually diminishing Monday afternoon and evening, generally 1-2" of rain. - High rain chances again Tuesday night into Wednesday with a dry end to the week. - Cooler weather by the middle of the week, with temperatures dropping to 10-15 degrees below seasonal norms from Wednesday through Saturday, and not a great deal warmer thereafter. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 An upper level low is sitting over Arkansas and will push east tonight into Monday. This will bring periods of light rain throughout the night. Lows will fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s. The upper level low will be over us on Monday and that will keep scattered showers in the forecast throughout the day but we will see the chances shift mainly to the east of I-65 by the afternoon. It will remain cool with highs only warming a few degrees from our lows into the mid to upper 50s. Rain totals through Monday afternoon are looking to be 0.50-1.0" with some areas seeing over an inch south of I-40. Much of the area will dry out Monday evening but showers will linger over the Plateau into the early part of the overnight as the upper level low starts to push east becoming an open wave. Tuesday will be mainly dry into the afternoon as a weak short wave ridge pushes over the region. Highs will warm back into the low to mid 60s. A cold trough will dig out of Canada into Middle TN Tuesday night. This will bring the return of medium to high rain chances to the area. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 An upper level low will be working over Middle TN on Wednesday and will bring high rain chances. Showers will linger into Thursday as the low spins over region. It will start to lift north into the Northeast late Thursday into Friday and that will bring the return of dry conditions. Highs on Wednesday will cool back into the low to mid 50s and it will be chilly on Thursday with highs only in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Cloud cover will keep lows a bit "warmer" Wednesday night but we will see them drop into the 30s Thursday and Friday night. Flow will become more zonal over the weekend and that will warm highs back into the 60s but overnight lows will remain cold in the 30s. Models diverge on the pattern late in the weekend and we may see a trough bring rain chances but confidence is low. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 A very messy aviation forecast continues as a storm system brings rounds of rain to the area. VFR conditions currently prevail as rain remains light, however, conditions are expected to deteriorate during the overnight hours. Generally after 06Z, cigs will lower to MVFR and then to IFR/LIFR as heavier rain moves into the area. Periods of MVFR/IFR vis will also be likely due to this increase in rainfall intensity. Once cigs lower to IFR/LIFR, the NBM gives a 50- 70% chance that they will continue through the TAF period. Rain looks to taper off after 00Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 52 59 51 65 / 100 80 30 20 Clarksville 51 59 51 65 / 100 80 20 40 Crossville 46 53 46 58 / 100 100 70 20 Columbia 51 60 51 64 / 100 70 20 20 Cookeville 49 56 49 60 / 100 100 60 30 Jamestown 46 53 47 59 / 90 90 70 30 Lawrenceburg 50 59 50 63 / 100 70 20 20 Murfreesboro 51 60 51 64 / 100 80 30 20 Waverly 50 59 51 63 / 100 60 20 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mueller LONG TERM....Mueller AVIATION.....Clements