FXUS64 KOHX 221533 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1033 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1020 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 - Near record high temperatures are expected this afternoon. - Expect a cooler start to the week, but temperatures will still average above seasonal norms through Friday. - Rain chances this week are low with very little QPF during the upcoming 7 days. - There is an elevated fire risk on Monday across much of Middle Tennessee. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1020 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 A cold front is poised to slip across Middle Tennessee overnight, with low rain chances mainly north of I-40. The remainder of the region will only experience increased cloudiness. Ahead of the surface boundary, the air mass is quite warm, and record-breaking heat is possible this afternoon. Compressional heating just ahead of the cold front may even add a couple of degrees onto what already promises to be very warm temperatures. Following tonight's fropa, temperatures tomorrow will be considerably cooler. But even then, we'll still be close to seasonal norms. Also tomorrow, much of Middle Tennessee may experience an elevated fire risk owing to very low RH values and gusty, post-frontal winds. Fuels won't take on much moisture, as QPF values overnight range from zero to just a few hundredths of an inch. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1020 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 The cool-down will be short-lived, as we warm right back up -- perhaps not to record levels again, but still above seasonal norms. And that's where we'll stay for the remainder of next week. Rain chances after tonight will be almost non-existent through at least Thursday night as high pressure quickly becomes the dominant weather feature across the mid state. At this time, it appears that a cold front will finally break through the ridge on Friday night, but with low rain chances and low QPF. An early look at next weekend suggests a cooler, rain-free Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 TAFs are VFR today through this evening. Surface winds will increase from the SW later today as a cold front approaches Middle Tennessee from the NW. There are also LLWS remarks in a few of the TAFs as we get near fropa later tonight. There isn't a great deal of moisture ahead of the boundary, but we do expect MVFR ceilings to develop post-frontal, along with spotty showers in a few spots during the overnight period. (PROB30 remarks have been included where PoPs are high enough.) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 88 51 65 43 / 0 20 0 0 Clarksville 88 45 62 40 / 0 20 0 0 Crossville 81 51 60 38 / 0 20 10 0 Columbia 87 50 65 43 / 0 10 0 0 Cookeville 82 51 60 41 / 0 30 0 0 Jamestown 82 48 59 37 / 0 40 0 0 Lawrenceburg 85 51 65 43 / 0 10 0 0 Murfreesboro 87 52 65 43 / 0 20 0 0 Waverly 87 45 64 43 / 0 10 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Rose