FXUS64 KOHX 122335 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 535 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 528 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 - Much colder air arrives this weekend with the coldest air of the season so far Saturday night through Monday morning. - Single digit to zero degree Wind Chills expected Sunday morning. - Widespread lows in the teens to single digits Sunday night. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1037 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 A few high clouds out there at forecast time, but with all of this sun, temperatures are going to warm up nicely today. Many will be 3 to 5 degrees above normal when all is said and done. I hope everyone gets a chance to enjoy these warmer temperatures because they're going away soon. This afternoon, the first of two weekend cold fronts will push through the mid-state. This will bring a slight cooling for tomorrow. Temperatures both Saturday morning and afternoon should be 4 to 7 degrees cooler than today. Then Saturday night a second, more intense cold front will bring some of Canada's best to the TN Valley along with gusty winds. Temperatures Sunday morning will be in the teens area wide and with winds expected to gust 20-25 mph starting around midnight Saturday night, there's a high chance wind chills (feels-like temps) Sunday morning are going to be in the single digits. Some along the TN-KY state line will be close to zero. Right now, NBM probs have mercury readings in the teens Sunday morning btwn 70 and 90%. This is high, but there has been some wavering in the last few runs. We very likely will issue a Cold Weather Advisory for Wind Chills for Sunday morning, but as of right now, I'm going to refrain from issuing until tomorrow. It's really outside the typical window for issuing something like this and without knowing exactly where to make a cut-off line (likely won't be the whole CWA), I'd like to hold off for another run or two of models. Needless to say, folks along and north of I-40 will end up with this headline. Not enough cold fun for you? Good, because I have more. Monday morning, while the wind will die down (thankfully), low teens and single digits are expected area wide as maximum radiational cooling occurs under the surface high. I will say this, an expected moderation has occurred from the NBM in the last two runs. Either way, a check-in on the elderly and outdoor pets becoming indoor pets will be needed Sunday night. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1037 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Monday morning will be the end of this bitter cold spell. Temperatures will recover throughout the rest of the week and then, everyone has to be asking, "Will it even rain again??" Yup, but it may be Thursday of next week before that happens -- and that's a maybe. The GFS is dry, as it has been the last couple of days, but the Euro has been carrying shower and storms. NBM jumps in today with medium (60-70%) chances. For now, stay warm. The winter is coming. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 528 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 A low MVFR/high IFR cloud deck currently positioned over northwest Kentucky will move over all terminals overnight. Episodes of LIFR cigs will be possible at CSV and SRB. VFR cigs look to return by late morning/early afternoon. Winds will be light and variable through most of the period, shifting back out of the north upon frontal passage Saturday afternoon. Sustained speeds will be between 7 to 10 kts during this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 32 49 18 26 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 31 45 14 22 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 30 52 18 24 / 0 0 10 0 Columbia 31 53 18 26 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 30 49 18 24 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 29 48 16 22 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 30 54 18 26 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 30 51 18 26 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 30 47 15 23 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Baggett