FXUS64 KOHX 120425 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1025 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1011 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 - Much colder air arrives this weekend with the coldest air of the season so far Saturday night through Monday morning. - Widespread lows in the teens to single digits forecast Saturday and Sunday night. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1011 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 With a shortwave clipping our area to the north, this has allowed for light snow activity to develop mainly in KY but also across the northern Plateau. For our far northern Plateau (Fentress, Pickett, Clay, and Overton), temperatures have dropped just below freezing with recent reports indicating a dusting of snow. CAMs indicate that these showers will come to an end in this area around midnight. Any snow (less than a half inch) that does accumulate will melt rapidly thanks to warmer temperatures Friday. Be sure to enjoy Friday as big changes are on the way. With southerly flow in place much of the day, temperatures will be very nice with highs in the 50s along with sunshine. But then a cold front dips south Friday night, bringing the first blast of colder air. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1011 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 While Saturday will be colder compared to Friday with highs in the 40s to low 50s, it'll be the second blast of cold air that night that will bring the bone-chilling cold. Arctic air will invade Middle TN with another system clipping us to the north. Temperatures will plummet Saturday night with widespread lows in the teens. There won't be much warming come Sunday as "highs" stay in the 20s. Then it'll be even colder come Sunday night as temperatures fall into the low teens to single digits. And if that's not cold enough for you, brisk northerly winds associated with the second front will result in apparent temperatures in the single digits to low teens through Sunday afternoon. This cold is dangerous so be sure to take precautions like bundling up if you are outside and bringing your pets indoors. There is still a question regarding precipitation Saturday night with the second system, and models have largely backed off on that potential for Middle TN. NBM's precipitation chances have dropped to around 15-25% mainly for areas along and east of I-65. Precipitation type would mainly be snow, but there is a low chance for a wintry mix before temperatures are able to fall completely below freezing. Regardless, little if any impacts are currently expected as the probability of at least a dusting of snow is low at 10-15% across the northern Plateau. Temperatures will finally break above the freezing mark early Monday afternoon after about 36 consecutive hours of staying below 32. Temperatures will quickly rebound thereafter so that by Wednesday, we're back in the mid-50s. As far as the next chance of rain, that will be Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 519 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 VFR conditions prevail this taf cycle with high clouds around 10kft. A front will push through overnight, bringing a brief period of low-level wind shear out of the WSW near 40 kts. This looks to occur between roughly 09Z-15Z. Friday will feature thinning cloud cover, wind gusts between 15 to 20 kts, and a wind shift out of the NW towards the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 37 56 32 50 / 10 10 0 0 Clarksville 36 52 30 46 / 20 10 0 0 Crossville 29 51 30 52 / 20 0 0 0 Columbia 35 58 30 53 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 32 52 30 50 / 30 10 0 0 Jamestown 3050 29 49 / 50 10 0 0 Lawrenceburg 35 58 30 55 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 34 57 30 52 / 10 0 0 0 Waverly 36 54 30 48 / 10 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....Baggett