FXUS64 KOHX 100342 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1042 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1039 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 - A low chance of light showers Saturday afternoon south of I-40. Higher rain chances return for the entire area on Sunday but a washout is not expected. - Unsettled conditions continue Monday and Tuesday with a medium to high chance for showers and thunderstorms. No severe storms expected at this time. - Warming trend Wednesday through Friday with highs around 90 degrees Thursday and Friday && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 It's quiet across the area tonight with northerly winds surface winds. A cold front stretches across central Mississippi through central Georgia. Looking aloft, a lobe of upper level energy is in the process of being pinched off from the stronger Northeast trough. By Saturday morning, a large closed upper low will have taken shape over the Deep South. In response, a surface low will organize over southern MS/southern AL with a broad warm front across northern AL/GA. This will be the focus of some shower activity mainly south of Middle Tennessee although some high res solutions have some light showers making it into our southern counties Saturday afternoon. If they do, QPF will be very light. The upper low and associated surface low will wobble around on Sunday bringing a couple waves of moisture through our area Saturday night and again on Sunday. This will bring increased rain chances especially Sunday afternoon, but I do not expect the afternoon to be a complete washout. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 As we begin the extended forecast, the upper low will still be meandering around the region which will bring high shower and storm chances Monday and Tuesday. By Tuesday, the upper low will start making northeastern progress albeit slow. By Thursday, the upper trough will be kicked out and replaced with pretty strong upper ridging. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to perhaps 90 degrees on Thursday and again on Friday with a break from the rain chances. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 TAFs are VFR. Surface high pressure is situated to our north, so that will keep a NNE surface flow in place over Middle Tennessee, with a gradual shift to the NE during the next several hours. Drier air has worked its way into the mid state, and with winds staying up several knots overnight, we aren't likely to see the widespread dense fog that developed last night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 73 52 74 58 / 0 0 10 40 Clarksville 73 49 72 55 / 0 0 0 10 Crossville 70 47 70 53 / 0 0 10 30 Columbia 74 53 71 57 / 0 0 20 50 Cookeville 71 49 72 55 / 0 0 10 30 Jamestown 69 47 71 52 / 0 0 0 20 Lawrenceburg 73 52 71 58 / 0 0 30 50 Murfreesboro 75 52 74 57 / 0 0 20 40 Waverly 73 51 71 56 / 0 0 10 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Rose