FXUS64 KOHX 091725 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1225 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1212 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 - Dry Saturday, but rain chances return for Sunday. - Unsettled conditions continue Monday and Tuesday with a medium to high chance for showers and thunderstorms. No severe storms expected at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1048 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 An upper level trough is tracking into the Northeast pushing a cold front through Middle TN. Soundings show good substance just above the surface which is trapping moisture at the low level and brought the fog and low clouds this morning. Northerly winds will push in drier air this afternoon and we should gradually mix out the low clouds, always some uncertainty on how quick this will happen but we should eventually get some sun this afternoon. Afternoon highs will push into the lower to mid 70s but if the low clouds linger longer into the afternoon these highs will be a few degrees cooler. Overnight we will see quiet conditions and with the drier air settling in it will be a chilly as lows fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s. A trough currently over eastern TX will push east and becoming a closed off upper level low and stall out over the region into early next week. Models always struggle with this set up and exactly where the upper level low sets up. This will impact the forecast quite a bit day to day and we will likely see rain chances change as we get closer to the forecast period. Right now it looks like it will remain to our south on Saturday and that will bring a nice day to much of the area. Mid to high level clouds will be working through the region and that will limit overall sunshine. A shower or two may sneak into far southern areas later in the day. Highs will reach the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1048 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 The stalled out upper level low will start to lift north on Sunday and this will bring low to medium chances for some light showers in the afternoon and evening. The upper level low will continue to lift north Sunday night into Monday and will increase chances for showers. Widespread scattered showers and thunderstorm can be expected for Monday. Instability will increase but should remain below 1000 j/kg. Overall profiles are not going to be supportive of severe storms with very poor lapse rates but bulk shear will push to 25-35 knots. Right now severe thunderstorms are looking unlikely but afternoon thunder can be expected. The upper level low will start to lift out of TN on Tuesday but shower and thunderstorm activity will linger for the afternoon and evening. Upper level ridge then sets up for the middle part of the week and will bring quiet weather with warming temperatures. Highs for Sunday and the first part of the week will be in the 70s with them warming into the 80s by the middle part of the week. We may even see some lower 90s by the end of the week. The NBM is giving a 30-60% chance of seeing highs 90+ next Friday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Terminals have been impacted by fog and stratus this morning. The fog has improved, but MVFR cigs will continue through at least 19Z. The latest satellite loops are finally showing some good erosion of clouds coming from the northeast as increasing NNE winds bring drier air. Based on those trends and the latest guidance, it looks like all Middle TN terminals will lift to VFR cigs by 21Z with NNE winds near 10KT. Continued drying and a sustained NNE wind will prevent fog redevelopment tonight and should keep VFR going through the remainder of the taf period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 51 73 57 78 / 0 10 20 50 Clarksville 48 72 55 76 / 0 0 10 30 Crossville 47 71 53 74 / 0 10 20 40 Columbia 51 72 56 76 / 0 20 30 50 Cookeville 48 71 56 76 / 0 10 20 40 Jamestown 45 71 52 76 / 0 10 10 30 Lawrenceburg 51 72 56 75 / 0 20 30 50 Murfreesboro 51 73 56 78 / 0 10 20 50 Waverly 49 71 55 76 / 0 10 20 40 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mueller LONG TERM....Mueller AVIATION.....13