FXUS64 KOHX 091131 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 631 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 606 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 - Areas of fog are expected to develop after midnight and dissipate by 9am Friday. - Dry Saturday, but rain chances return for Sunday. - Unsettled conditions continue Monday and Tuesday with a medium to high chance for showers and thunderstorms. No severe storms expected at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday Night) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Besides a few sprinkles, the area is dry now after an active afternoon and evening. Some areas of fog are developing where the clouds have cleared. Model guidance suggests fairly widespread fog after midnight with a low stratus deck developing as well. The low stratus deck may prevent widespread dense fog, but we'll have to monitor this. The low stratus will linger Friday morning but should finally mix out around midday with sunshine in the afternoon. A lobe of upper level energy will be getting pinched off on Friday with a closed low developing along the Gulf Coast by Saturday morning. The low should be far enough south on Saturday to keep rain chances south of the TN/AL state line. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 The closed upper low and associated surface low will drift northward on Sunday with a warm front lifting into the area bringing back rain chances. The upper low will take its time meandering through the region Monday through Wednesday keeping rain and storm chances in the forecast. Models have strong upper ridging building in Thursday which will end the rain chances but also push temperatures to at least 90 degrees Thursday and Friday for a large part of the area west of the plateau. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Areas of dense fog that are bringing IFR/LIFR conditions will improve by 15z with MVFR cigs lingering until 18z. VFR conditions return for the afternoon. Winds will be northerly increasing to 6-12 knots in the afternoon with a few gusts up to 19 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 74 51 73 56 / 0 0 10 20 Clarksville 73 48 72 53 / 0 0 0 10 Crossville 71 47 71 53 / 0 0 10 20 Columbia 74 51 72 56 / 10 0 20 30 Cookeville 71 48 71 54 / 0 0 10 20 Jamestown 70 45 71 51 / 0 0 10 10 Lawrenceburg 74 51 72 56 / 0 0 20 30 Murfreesboro 75 51 73 56 / 0 0 10 20 Waverly 73 49 71 54 / 0 0 10 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for TNZ005>011- 023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Mueller