FXUS64 KOHX 090527

AFDOHX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Nashville TN

1227 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1222 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



- Areas of fog are expected to develop after midnight and

  dissipate by 9am Friday.



- Dry Saturday, but rain chances return for Sunday.



- Unsettled conditions continue Monday and Tuesday with a medium 

  to high chance for showers and thunderstorms. No severe storms 

  expected at this time. 



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Tonight through Saturday Night)

Issued at 1042 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025



Besides a few sprinkles, the area is dry now after an active 

afternoon and evening. Some areas of fog are developing where the 

clouds have cleared. Model guidance suggests fairly widespread 

fog after midnight with a low stratus deck developing as well. The

low stratus deck may prevent widespread dense fog, but we'll have

to monitor this. The low stratus will linger Friday morning but 

should finally mix out around midday with sunshine in the 

afternoon. A lobe of upper level energy will be getting pinched 

off on Friday with a closed low developing along the Gulf Coast by

Saturday morning. The low should be far enough south on Saturday 

to keep rain chances south of the TN/AL state line. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Sunday through next Friday)

Issued at 1042 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025



The closed upper low and associated surface low will drift northward 

on Sunday with a warm front lifting into the area bringing back rain 

chances. The upper low will take its time meandering through the 

region Monday through Wednesday keeping rain and storm chances in 

the forecast. Models have strong upper ridging building in Thursday 

which will end the rain chances but also push temperatures to at 

least 90 degrees Thursday and Friday for a large part of the area 

west of the plateau.



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



Patchy dense fog will plague terminals through 13Z. Models are not

in great agreement with cloud coverage through the overnight with

some bringing a low stratus deck in, and others keeping high

clouds. Have went with IFR cigs starting at 09Z based on satellite

trends. If clouds do not build in, fog will be thick and more

widespread with very limited vis. 



Any fog and low stratus will lift after sunrise, and the remainder

of this taf period will be VFR with northeasterly winds near 10

kts and gusts up to 20 kts. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Nashville      74  51  73  55 /  10   0  10  10 

Clarksville    73  48  72  53 /   0   0   0  10 

Crossville     70  46  70  52 /  20   0  10  20 

Columbia       73  50  71  55 /  10   0  10  20 

Cookeville     71  48  71  54 /  10   0  10  10 

Jamestown      70  44  70  51 /  10   0  10  10 

Lawrenceburg   73  50  71  55 /  10   0  10  30 

Murfreesboro   74  50  73  55 /  10   0  10  20 

Waverly        73  49  71  54 /  10   0  10  10 



&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Reagan

LONG TERM....Reagan

AVIATION.....Baggett