FXUS64 KOHX 090354

AFDOHX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Nashville TN

1054 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025



...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1042 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025



- Areas of fog are expected to develop after midnight and

  dissipate by 9am Friday.



- Dry Saturday, but rain chances return for Sunday.



- Unsettled conditions continue Monday and Tuesday with a medium 

  to high chance for showers and thunderstorms. No severe storms 

  expected at this time. 



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Tonight through Saturday Night)

Issued at 1042 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025



Besides a few sprinkles, the area is dry now after an active 

afternoon and evening. Some areas of fog are developing where the 

clouds have cleared. Model guidance suggests fairly widespread 

fog after midnight with a low stratus deck developing as well. The

low stratus deck may prevent widespread dense fog, but we'll have

to monitor this. The low stratus will linger Friday morning but 

should finally mix out around midday with sunshine in the 

afternoon. A lobe of upper level energy will be getting pinched 

off on Friday with a closed low developing along the Gulf Coast by

Saturday morning. The low should be far enough south on Saturday 

to keep rain chances south of the TN/AL state line. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Sunday through next Friday)

Issued at 1042 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025



The closed upper low and associated surface low will drift northward 

on Sunday with a warm front lifting into the area bringing back rain 

chances. The upper low will take its time meandering through the 

region Monday through Wednesday keeping rain and storm chances in 

the forecast. Models have strong upper ridging building in Thursday 

which will end the rain chances but also push temperatures to at 

least 90 degrees Thursday and Friday for a large part of the area 

west of the plateau.



&&



.AVIATION...

(00Z TAFS)

Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025



Showers and thunderstorms have cleared CKV and will clear the 

other terminals prior to 06z from west to east. CSV/SRB could be 

impacted by a storm prior to 03z which could drop vis to IFR. Once

the showers and storms move out of Middle Tennessee, low stratus 

and reduced visibilities are expected to develop after 06z which 

could drop conditions to LIFR/IFR. Conditions will slowly improve 

through Friday morning before VFR conditions return by 18z at all 

sites. Winds have already shift to the NW/N at CKV/BNA/MQY and 

will shift at CSV and SRB by 03z. Winds will remain northerly on 

Friday and increase to around 10 kts after 15z with gusts up to 20

kts during the afternoon.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Nashville      58  74  51  74 /  40  10   0  10 

Clarksville    57  73  48  73 /  30   0   0   0 

Crossville     53  70  46  70 /  60  20   0  10 

Columbia       57  73  50  72 /  30  10   0  10 

Cookeville     55  71  48  71 /  60  10   0  10 

Jamestown      53  70  44  70 /  70  10   0  10 

Lawrenceburg   56  73  50  72 /  40  10   0  10 

Murfreesboro   57  74  50  73 /  40  10   0  10 

Waverly        56  73  49  72 /  20  10   0  10 



&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Reagan

LONG TERM....Reagan

AVIATION.....Reagan