FXUS64 KOHX 062316 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 616 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 613 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 - Medium to high chance for light rain/drizzle through tonight. - Drier and cooler conditions return Thursday, becoming warmer this weekend. - Next chance of rain arrives Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1107 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026 A cold front is now positioned across Middle Tennessee and is currently near Lawrenceburg to near Crossville. Areas north of the front are cooler and cloudy with areas of mist. These areas will remain stable through the period, so no severe weather is expected. On and off showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder remain possible through tonight, however. For areas near and south of the front, some destabilization will be possible this afternoon, so better coverage of thunderstorms is expected. Thankfully morning convection deployed an outflow boundary through the area which stalled in northern MS and AL. This will help suppress highest instability to our south which will greatly limit chances for severe storms though the afternoon. Strongest storms could contain a strong wind gust or small hail as well as brief heavy downpours with PWs running 1.4 to 1.6" across our southern counties. Continued showers are expected into the evening and overnight, but rainfall rates and coverage should decrease into tomorrow morning as the trough aloft moves east and high pressure/cold air advection takes over Middle Tennessee. Thursday will be cooler and stable overall. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1107 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026 A brief period of cooler, stable weather is expected Thursday night into Friday with high pressure in the region and a drier air mass. High pressure will move off to the east for the weekend which will allow for southerly return flow over our area. The weekend should experience a bit of a warm-up as a result and moisture increases will support showers and storms for Sunday when a shortwave disturbance passes through the region. Early next week appears to be fairly quiet overall before low rain/storm chances make another appearance mid week. There's no obvious signal for hazardous weather or anomalous temperatures through the long-term. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 CKV has gone VFR already and this will be coming for BNA/MQY over the next several hours as this system slowly exits the area. CSV/SRB are another story. IFR to MVFR cigs will stick around through sunrise on Thursday before VFR returns. Winds will remain light and northerly throughout the cycle. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 50 68 45 75 / 50 0 0 0 Clarksville 47 67 43 75 / 20 0 0 0 Crossville 48 64 40 69 / 80 0 0 0 Columbia 50 69 43 74 / 50 0 0 0 Cookeville 49 64 42 70 / 70 0 0 0 Jamestown 47 64 39 70 / 70 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 50 68 43 73 / 70 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 50 68 43 74 / 60 0 0 0 Waverly 48 68 44 75 / 20 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Unger