FXUS64 KOHX 061651 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1151 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1107 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026 - Medium to high chance for rain and thunderstorms through tonight, especially south of I-40. Severe weather threat is very low, but locally heavy rainfall remains possible. - Drier and cooler conditions return Thursday, becoming warmer this weekend. - Next chance of rain arrives Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1107 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026 A cold front is now positioned across Middle Tennessee and is currently near Lawrenceburg to near Crossville. Areas north of the front are cooler and cloudy with areas of mist. These areas will remain stable through the period, so no severe weather is expected. On and off showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder remain possible through tonight, however. For areas near and south of the front, some destabilization will be possible this afternoon, so better coverage of thunderstorms is expected. Thankfully morning convection deployed an outflow boundary through the area which stalled in northern MS and AL. This will help suppress highest instability to our south which will greatly limit chances for severe storms though the afternoon. Strongest storms could contain a strong wind gust or small hail as well as brief heavy downpours with PWs running 1.4 to 1.6" across our southern counties. Continued showers are expected into the evening and overnight, but rainfall rates and coverage should decrease into tomorrow morning as the trough aloft moves east and high pressure/cold air advection takes over Middle Tennessee. Thursday will be cooler and stable overall. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1107 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026 A brief period of cooler, stable weather is expected Thursday night into Friday with high pressure in the region and a drier air mass. High pressure will move off to the east for the weekend which will allow for southerly return flow over our area. The weekend should experience a bit of a warm-up as a result and moisture increases will support showers and storms for Sunday when a shortwave disturbance passes through the region. Early next week appears to be fairly quiet overall before low rain/storm chances make another appearance mid week. There's no obvious signal for hazardous weather or anomalous temperatures through the long-term. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026 Showers and isolated thunderstorms will impact terminals today, with MVFR/IFR cigs and vis likely. Some LIFR cigs may impact terminals as well, especially KCSV later this afternoon and tonight. There will be breaks between showers and storms, but lower cigs will allow for BR to keep vis around and below 6SM. Northerly winds around 10 knots can be expected, becoming light and variable after 06Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 67 50 68 45 / 80 50 0 0 Clarksville 65 47 67 43 / 50 20 0 0 Crossville 68 48 64 40 / 90 80 0 0 Columbia 69 50 69 43 / 90 50 0 0 Cookeville 66 49 64 42 / 100 70 0 0 Jamestown 67 46 64 39 / 100 70 0 0 Lawrenceburg 69 50 68 43 / 100 70 0 0 Murfreesboro 69 50 68 43 / 90 60 0 0 Waverly 65 48 68 44 / 60 20 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Barnwell